Will coal prices rise or fall after the typhoon?

After the typhoon, the coastal coal market will tend to be better at different stages. Coal mining, road, port, shipping and electricity will be rushed to transport coal. It is expected that the coal price in the port market around the Bohai Sea will show a trend of falling first and then rising. Coal prices are expected to fall by about 10 yuan per ton, and coal prices in the 5500 calorific calorific card market will fall to 570 yuan per ton. The main reason is that a large number of soaking coal stockpiled around Bohai Sea port will be sold at a lower price; and then coal prices will rise at the end of August. In addition to the cost support of traders, there will also be power plant repairs, as well as phased rush before Daqing Line maintenance and Daqing, which will promote the development of the market. Coal prices are expected to rise by 5-10 CNY/ton. No more than 20 yuan per ton.

At present, the disadvantageous factors are as follows: firstly, after the typhoon, the temperature drops, and the daily consumption of power plants in East China will decrease; secondly, the hydroelectric power will continue to generate power, UHV follow-up, and the thermal power load will decrease; thirdly, the soaking coal stored in the harbor around the Bohai Sea will drop due to the long-term immersion in water, which will be in accordance with the index. Floating sales, to a certain extent, helped coal prices continue to fall.

Firstly, during the typhoon period, coal-pulling vessels sheltered along the line, the north and South ports were closed, the stock of power plants declined, and some power plants need to replenish their warehouses; secondly, due to the low stock of power plants, they actively pulled and transported the stock of the second port, resulting in low coal storage in the second port; thirdly, the north. Although the inventory of Fanggang Port is not low, it needs to clean up the collapsed stacks; even if the typhoon passed, it can not be operated at full load immediately, which has affected the loading and unloading efficiency to a certain extent; fourth, the Daqin Line will be repaired in late September; and the National Day guarantee and supply work, the power plant will actively increase coal storage; fifth, cement and other heights. Energy-consuming industries will resume production in autumn, driving coal demand.

In September, the consumption of civilian electricity will decrease. Whether the daily consumption of power plants can be boosted and the market can be improved depends mainly on industrial electricity. From the analysis of demand situation in the first half of the year, trade frictions have compressed the profit margin of enterprises, slowed down investment in coastal areas, and also affected electricity consumption to a certain extent, resulting in limited incremental demand for coal. However, with the further increase of macro-policy support, the pulling power of the economy in the face of coal demand has gradually improved; the market fundamentals will be improved, creating greater macro-basic conditions for energy, especially for the increase of coal demand.

Since June 5, 135 cement enterprises have stopped production for 120 days at staggered peak, which reduces the amount of coal used for cement, and it is estimated that the cement industry will resume production after National Day in October. The cement industry has a large profit margin and can accept high coal prices, which will support the rise of coal prices. In addition, the import policy is gradually tightening, many customs offices in the South no longer accept customs declarations from other places; coupled with the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, it is expected that the import volume will be reduced, and the impact on the domestic coal market will be weakened.