MTBE Market Trend Fluctuates Higher in China

November 14, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 10 to 14, the price of MTBE increased from 4,960 CNY/ton to 4,992 CNY/ton, a small rise of 0.66% within the period, a decrease of 2.49% month-over-month, and a decrease of 7.97% year-over-year. After the previous decline in MTBE prices to a low level, it attracted traders' interest in entering the market, and manufacturers generally had intentions to maintain prices. Some large enterprises still focused mainly on exports, with limited sales in China, providing some support to the market. The terminal demand for gasoline was stable, with traders mostly purchasing according to their needs, and the market trading atmosphere was acceptable.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have declined, primarily due to concerns about the risk of future supply surpluses. These worries are compounded by the slow recovery in weak demand, putting downward pressure on the oil market. As of November 13, the settlement price for the January Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $63.01 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, despite volatile and declining international crude oil prices, the drop in oil costs has prompted buyers at the downstream end to step in and purchase at lower levels. Additionally, positive news regarding favorable prospects for refined oil exports has encouraged refineries to capitalize on the situation by raising their selling prices. Meanwhile, traders in the intermediate stages are increasingly expressing intent to place orders, further boosting market activity and overall trading sentiment. The demand side for MTBE is also being supported by relatively positive factors.

Supply side: The new material facility of a domestic company has stopped operations, and the dehydrogenation facility of Lihuayi has started operation, affecting this week's production. The facility utilization rate has increased. MTBE supply is influenced by negative factors.

As of November 14, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production companies:

As of the close on November 6, the Asian MTBE market closed at $659.92–$661.92 per ton, down $15.83 from the previous trading day on an FOB Singapore basis. Meanwhile, the European MTBE market edged up by $7 per ton, with prices settling at $849.24–$849.74 per ton on an FOB ARA basis. In the U.S., the MTBE market closed higher by $1.52 per ton, with FOB Gulf Coast prices reaching $845.10–$845.45 per ton (equivalent to 238.62–238.72 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast: Raw material prices are likely to remain at high levels, keeping cost pressures intact. Meanwhile, some major manufacturers continue to focus primarily on exporting goods to port terminals, resulting in limited domestic supply releases—this situation provides moderate support to the market. An MTBE analyst believes that China's MTBE market could see another upward trend.