How much coking coal has been cut in Shanxi and Shandong in a week?

This week, the national coking coal market continued to be weak, demand continued to be depressed, and coking coal prices continued to decline in some areas. The market price of gas and clean coal in Shandong dropped by 60-70 CNY/ton, and Changxie coal price dropped by 35 CNY/ton. After that, the tax of gas and clean coal in Jining was about 1000 CNY/ton. In addition, the price of lean coal and lean coal in Changzhi area of Shanxi Province was reduced by 50 CNY/ton, and the tax of lean coal output was reduced by 1040 CNY/ton. In addition, the price of high-quality coking coal in Luliang area of Shanxi Province was also lowered by 30 CNY/ton. On the whole, due to the high output of blended coking coal (gas concentrate and lean coal, lean coal) and the loss of coke market, the purchase enthusiasm of coking plant for coking coal is obviously weakened, and the demand is general. In addition, the weak situation of coking coal market demand is also transmitted to high-quality coking coal. Later, after enjoying the dividend of the three-year supply-side structure reform, the contradiction between supply and demand in the coking coal market began to highlight in the fourth quarter of this year, and the price will be under overall pressure. In Shanxi, the price of high-quality coking coal in Shanxi has also been lowered this week. Affected by the continued weakening of coke prices and shrinking profits, following the decline of coking coal and high sulfur coking coal prices, the price of high-quality coking coal in Luliang and Linfen areas of Shanxi Province has loosened, generally falling by 30-40 CNY/ton. The price of low-sulfur coking coal and medium-sulfur coking coal in Luliang area of Shanxi Province has decreased by 30 CNY/ton, and the price of low-sulfur coking coal has decreased by 30 CNY/ton. The tax-bearing cash of ore-drawing is 1550 CNY/ton, the tax-bearing cash of medium-sulphur main coking coal is 1200 CNY/ton, and the low-sulphur main coking coal in Anze area of Linfen is reduced by 40 CNY/ton to 1550 CNY/ton.

Shandong: This week, the clean coal market in Shanxi continues to be weak. Following last week's price drop of 60-70 yuan per ton in Shandong clean coal market, this week's coking coal price of Changxie in Shandong followed up with a decrease of 35 yuan per ton. The price reduction has limited boost to the market demand of refined coal in the province. Demand continues to be depressed. Inventory of coal enterprises keeps rising. Among them, the inventory of large coal mines has exceeded 600,000 tons. In the later period, the production of coal mines in Shandong Province is more normal, the supply side is normal, but the demand side is still shrinking. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand in Shandong refined coal market in the later period still exists, and the price will continue to be weak. On the downstream side, the second round of coke price reduction lags behind, the pace of steel mills continue to suppress has slowed down, and coke prices are expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize in the later period. The coke stock of Shandong mainstream steel plant is stable at about 540,000 tons.

In other areas, although coking coal prices in Shanxi and Shandong generally declined, coking coal prices in Changxie of Hebei and in the market remained stable. At present, the main low-sulfur coking coal in Tangshan area has a tax of 1500 CNY/ton, while the main low-sulfur coking coal in Handan area has a tax of 1460 CNY/ton. Downstream, in order to protect the National Day parade blue, the number of follow-up blast furnace stoppages in Handan area will gradually increase. Some of the steelmakers arrange to reduce the blast furnace load to about 30-40% in No. 16, while a few steelmakers arrange to bake all the blast furnaces in No. 26, which will still restrain coke demand in the short term.

Coking Coal Market Forecast: On the supply side, coal production in the second half of the year will be released and increased, coking coal supply in some areas will be gradually relaxed, but near the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic, short-term coal mine security inspection efforts will be increased, production or a small contraction, but the impact on coal prices is limited, coking coal prices will continue in the later period. The situation is stable and weak. On the demand side, although there are signs of stabilization in coking plants, the pressure on coking coal has not slowed down. Most coking plants still strictly control the inventory of coking coal, and the demand for coking coal is weak as a whole. However, with the gradual stabilization of coke prices, the pressure on coking coal in coking plants is expected to gradually slow down. For downstream products, after the second round of coke price reduction, there is limited space to continue downward, and three rounds of price reduction are expected to stall. Some coking plants in some areas have indicated that they will try to raise coke prices after the festival. With the gradual stop of coke price decline and stabilization, the pressure of coking plants on coke coal is expected to gradually slow down.

At the later stage of coking coal production is relatively normal, and there are signs of loosening in some areas, while at the later stage of the demand side, with the pressure of the coke market declining and the production capacity of the coking industry declining in succession, the demand side is not optimistic, and the overall market will remain stable, moderate and weak. In terms of price, it is expected that the price of gas and clean coal in Shandong will be 1000 CNY/ton next week, the price of main coking coal in Handan area of Hebei Province will be stabilized at about 1480 CNY/ton, and the price of low sulfur main coking coal in Luliang area of Shanxi Province will be stabilized at about 1660 CNY/ton.