Coking coal begins to break through

In the near future, the coking coal market is unpredictable. Before the middle of November, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent, the sales pressure of coal enterprises is great, and the focus of coking coal price is constantly moving down. However, after entering the middle and late November, driven by the news that the annual long-term price of coking coal in 2020 is mainly stable, two consecutive mining disasters in Shanxi and Shandong, import coal policy restrictions, and good performance of steel market, the coke in the late period The coal market will gradually stop falling and stabilize, and the market confidence will be greatly boosted to break out against the trend.

From January to early November 2019, the supply and demand pattern of coking coal market began to change, the contradiction between market supply and demand began to appear, the price focus began to decline, and the market as a whole was weak. Taking Jining area of Shandong Province as an example, the price of gas refined coal decreased from 1150 CNY/ton at the beginning of 2019 to 900 CNY/ton at the beginning of November 2019, with a total decrease of 250 CNY/ton in the year, a decrease of 21.74%. While the market generally believes that the coking coal market will continue to deteriorate, the coking coal market suddenly reverses, the market mentality is obviously boosted, and the later price will gradually stop falling and stabilize. The specific analysis is as follows: first, the annual long-term price of coking coal in 2020 is mainly stable. On November 19, the coal and steel coke giants gathered in Nanning, Guangxi, to participate in the 2020 coal and steel coke medium and long term contract negotiation meeting. It is understood that the long-term price of coking coal in 2020 will be mainly stable, which is conducive to the long-term stable and sound development of the industry. In 2020, the price of long-term cooperative will be stable, the confidence of coal market will be boosted, and most coal mines will start to hold up the price. 

Frequent mine accidents occurred. At the end of the year, the coal mine security inspection was strengthened. The supply was tightened at 13:50 on November 18, and 15 people were killed by Shanxi Pingyao Fengyan coal coke group. At present, all coal mines in Pingyao area have been shut down. In addition, the Shanxi provincial government held an emergency meeting on the afternoon of November 19 to make special arrangements for the coal mine safety production in the whole province and take effective measures to ensure the coal mine safety in the whole province Full production. At 5:50 on November 20, 2019, 11 people were trapped in the Liangbaosi coal mine in Jiaxiang County of Shandong energy Feicheng Mining Group. The coal mine mainly produces clean gas coal, which belongs to the ranks of coking coal. Two major coal mine safety production incidents happened in succession, which sounded the alarm for coal mine production at the end of the year. In the later stage, the national coal mine security inspection will be strengthened. At the end of the year, the supply of coal market is expected to tighten, the spot market will gradually stop falling and stabilize, and the subsequent impact of the incident will continue.

The coking plant of the steel plant has the intention of coal storage, and the demand will be improved. In view of the fact that in 2020, the price of CO coking coal will be stable, and the frequent occurrence of coal mine accidents, based on the consideration of stable production in the later stage, some coking plants and steel plants in some areas have plans to replenish inventory, and the market demand for coking coal will gradually improve in the later stage.

The downstream steel coke market will continue to be stronger. At present, the steel market is not light in the off-season. At present, the gross profit per ton of thread in the steel plant reaches 580 CNY/ton, while the average gross profit per ton of coking is less than 100 yuan. With the cost support of coke, the price of Coke will gradually increase in the later period. 5. Near the end of the year, the customs clearance of imported coal is limited. Since this year, the import coking coal data has maintained a growth trend. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in September 2019, China imported 7.97 million tons of coking coal, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 million tons month on month, a decrease of 12.13%. From January to September 2019, 60.95 million tons of coking coal were imported, up 19.9% year on year; the cumulative amount was 8668.844 million US dollars, up 13.8% year on year. As the annual coal import quota has been used up, from now until new year's day, the major ports have successively restricted the customs clearance of imported coal, the short-term supply of imported coking coal will be tightened, and the customs clearance will be restored to normal after new year's day. In general, with the finalization of the annual long-term price of coking coal in 2020, the increase of coal mine security inspection at the end of the year, the tightening of import coal policy, and the improvement of the enthusiasm of the downstream winter storage and replenishment, the market mentality and sentiment of coking coal have been greatly improved, the downward trend of coking coal price has been restrained, and the price will gradually stop falling and stabilize, not excluding the small rise of some coal prices Probably.