'Delta MayJust Be A Warning', New Variant Of COVID-19 May Emerge

Some countries are lifting pandemicrestrictions as the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 continues to sweep the worlddespite only moderate vaccination rates,media reported. The World Health Organization(WHO) has warned that deltaviruses may be just the beginning of viralevolution, and a new modelling study suggests that high levels of viraltransmission coupled with moderate vaccination rates may be the ideal scenariofor the emergence of new variant of COVID-19.

In about six weeks, the deltavariant rose from about 10 percent of all COVID-19 cases in the U.S. to astaggering 83 percent. Rochelle Valensky, director of the Centers for DiseaseControl and Prevention (CDC), said the growing dominance of the delta virusvariant in the United States is not surprising, but its rapid spread has beentroubling recently. Despite the growing number of breakthrough COVID-19infections reported in vaccinated populations, vaccines remain highly effectivein preventing hospitalizations and deaths. Francis Collins, director of theNational Institutes of Health (NIH), said the current vaccine could reduce therisk of severe COVID-19 and hospitalization by a factor of 25.

So, according to infectious diseaseexpert Anthony Fauci, vaccines still work, but not enough people have beenvaccinated. Currently, only about 50% of the U.S. population is fullyvaccinated, and vaccination rates vary widely from state to state. States suchas Alabama and Mississippi have only about 35% of their populations fullyvaccinated, while Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maine are all in themid-1960s. With restrictions such as social distancing and mask-wearingreturning to some U.S. states, Fauci said he sees no need to block the current wave.But he noted that increasing vaccination rates is the only long-term solution. Meanwhile,vaccination rates in poorer countries remain worryingly low due to unequaldistribution, prompting a warning from the WHO to countries beginning to easerestrictions.

Michael Ryan, WHO's emergenciesdirector, said: "Delta virus is a warning: it's a warning that the virusis evolving, but it's also a call to action that we need to act before more newvariants of COVID-19 emerge. Viruses become more adaptive, The virus is gettingfaster. The game plan still works, but we need to execute the game plan moreeffectively than ever.” Ryan emphasized our 2020 prevention strategies such asmasks, social distancing and avoiding crowded, unventilated rooms Space isstill valid for delta variants. They must continue alongside vaccination toreduce transmission and limit the emergence of new variant of COVID-19.

A new study published in ScientificReports models the possibility of the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains ofSARS-CoV-2. The study found that the best environment for this new variant ofCOVID-19 to emerge is when there is a high level of virus transmission in amoderately vaccinated population. These models suggest that the sweet spot forvaccination rates for the emergence of dangerous new variant of COVID-19 wouldbe around 60%.

Peter English, former chairman ofthe British Medical Association's Public Health Medicine Committee, said it wasalways wise to look at modelling studies with caution. But he also believes thenew study is reliable and consistent with other studies. English also said thatmany parts of the world abandoned epidemic restrictions before more people werevaccinated, so the problem is actually very simple. More virus in the communitymeans more vaccinated people will be infected, which means a greater chance ofvaccine escape variants spreading. Nick Davies, an expert in mathematicalmodelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said theresults were meaningful despite a lot of uncertainty in the modelling."Each country should do its part to avoid, as much as possible, creatingfertile ground for virus evolution, a goal that is largely aligned with publichealth and economic goals, as they both involve controlling transmission,"said Mr. "But at the end of the day, dealing with the emergence of vaccineescape strains is really a global problem, not a national problem; once avaccine mutant shows up somewhere it becomes a problem for everyone," saidDavies of the new study.

The new study does not advocate alockdown in vaccinated populations, but suggests a range of non-drug measuresthat should be taken until transmission in a given community decreases. Inaddition to mask wearing and social distancing, the study recommends considerationof extensive testing and genomic surveillance and rigorous contact tracing tohelp isolate infected individuals and limit further spread.

Ultimately, the researchers came upwith a view consistent with a statement issued by the WHO, reminding peoplethat the only solution is to spread the vaccine evenly around the world."Without global coordination, vaccine-resistant strains may be eliminatedin some populations but may persist in others. Therefore, a truly globalvaccination effort may be necessary to reduce the chance of drug-resistantstrains spreading globally."