Demand release is not as good as expected housing market adjustment

This year's "Golden Nine" has not been successful enough. Whether the "Silver Ten" can be reproduced in the real estate market attracts people's attention. However, this year's National Day Golden Week turnover remained low, and the "Silver Ten" started poorly. Experts predict that the adjustment range of the real estate market in the fourth quarter is expected to expand slightly under the condition of supply and demand, and the policy level may keep strict control, and the financial pressure of the real estate enterprises in the fourth quarter will further highlight coating online coatingol.com. According to the latest monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, in the golden week of National Day in 2019, the sales area of new houses in key 10 cities was 772,200 square meters, down 8.1% from the same period in 2018, and the turnover of new houses in 10 cities hit a new low in recent five years. Guo Shiying, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, pointed out that, on the one hand, in the regulatory atmosphere of "no speculation in housing", buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood. On the other hand, with the decline of the golden age of the real estate market, the attention to the real estate market has decreased. Huang Yu, executive vice president of China Index Research Institute, said that the overall demand of the domestic real estate market was not up to expectations this golden week. The volume of commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities has been greatly adjusted. Sales in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have declined year-on-year. Shenzhen has benefited from the improvement of supply. In addition, the base number of commercial residential buildings in the same period last year is low, and the volume of commercial residential buildings has increased significantly year-on-year.

Second-tier cities continue to show internal differentiation pattern. Huang Yu introduced that Wuhan, Ningbo, Suzhou, Nanning and other places released faster due to early demand, the current activity has declined, and the market has staged adjustment. Wenzhou, Fuzhou and other places have experienced a sustained and deep adjustment in market size. With the recent concentrated listing of high-quality projects, the demand for house purchases is high, and the transaction scale has rebounded. Among the third and fourth-tier cities, Yangzhou increased significantly year-on-year due to the low base of the same period last year. However, downward pressure still exists in Huizhou, Shaoguan and Dongguan.

Promotion efforts have not increased

During the "Eleventh" Long Holiday period, Chinese Securities Journal reporters visited several buildings in Shanghai and found that the situation of vigorous price reduction and promotion is less, and the new offer strength is generally small. Shanghai Chain broker told reporters that in addition to the "11th" day, although there are "take a look" 4-5 real estate projects every day during the long holiday, it is obvious that the intensity of transaction is not as strong as in previous years.

Liu Yanjian, deputy general manager of Land Cloud Business Department of Zhongzhiyuan, said that although many enterprises have taken some actions in price reduction and promotion, overall, the promotion is not very strong. "In fact, excessive concessions during the Golden Week may not necessarily lead to promotions, but may aggravate the market wait-and-see atmosphere." Yan Yuejin, director of research at the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the effect of housing promotion needs to be observed, and some buyers still hold a wait-and-see attitude. The main reason why the effect of price reduction promotion is not good is that the down payment policy of housing loans is still tight and some second-hand housing transactions are not smooth, which affects the demand for housing replacement, and the phenomenon of hesitation to buy houses during the adjustment of the interest rate policy of bank loans will also occur.

Housing market materials continue to adjust

The Zhongzhiyuan believes that the adjustment range of the real estate market in the fourth quarter will expand slightly under the state of supply and demand saw. Considering the recent positive marketing momentum of housing enterprises, the fourth quarter housing price increase or further decline.

Guo Shiying said that since July, regulators have issued many real estate financial policies, and the supervision of the relevant departments for the real estate market has not weakened, and is still in a strict state of control. The short-term impact of the "anchor change" of mortgage interest rate is not significant, which also shows that the current real estate regulation is still mainly to seek stability. It is expected that the policy will not be relaxed in the fourth quarter. Especially in financial supervision, we will continue to guard against illegal capital inflows into the real estate market. Affected by the long-term regulation of the market, buyers have strong wait-and-see mood, low enthusiasm to enter the market, and the turnover of new and second-hand houses has declined steadily.

Zhongzhiyuan believes that the financial pressure of Housing enterprises will be further highlighted in the fourth quarter, which will affect the enthusiasm of Housing enterprises to start investment. It is expected that the growth of investment in real estate development and new construction area will continue to slow down.