August 17 news
Today, the 1-day average of butadiene in China rose to 11,100.00 CNY/ton. The average difference indicator shows that the current market is in a strong consolidation with a bullish bias. The price is at a high level in the 60-day cycle, at a mid-high level in the 3-month cycle, and at a mid-low level in the 1-year cycle. Manufacturers' price support has led to a slight increase in the market, but downstream rigid demand procurement remains weak. Subsequent attention should be paid to the external market trends and the release pace of demand for downstream rubber and resins.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-16) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-15) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 200.00 | 234.67 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 328.00 | 295.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 266.00 | 189.33 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of change for the three differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent. Among them, the 5-day difference has decreased compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day differences have increased compared to yesterday, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market. Currently, it shows a strong consolidation with a slightly bullish oscillating state.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price positioning: Level 5 (high), with limited upside potential;
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Tier 4 (mid-to-high range);
1 year cycle price position: 2nd tier (lower middle), with some support.
Overall, while short-term price increases are constrained by high levels, the medium and lower long-term positions provide a buffer for market conditions. Combined with manufacturers' expectations of maintaining prices, the overall trend is expected to remain relatively strong.
V. Trend Chart Display
Six, recent market fundamentals situation
1. China Market Dynamics
Enterprise Auctions and Bidding: On August 13-14, Dongming Petrochemical set the floor price for butadiene exports at 11,000 CNY per ton, while Satellite Chemical started bidding at 10,800 CNY per ton. Sinopec raised its quotes simultaneously across all regions: East China, North China, and Central China adopted a price of 10,900 CNY per ton, while South China followed at 10,800 CNY per ton. Manufacturers’ efforts to maintain higher prices have led to a slight upward trend in market prices; however, downstream demand remains rigid and procurement is sluggish, resulting in light trading activity.
Review of the earlier market performance: From August 11 to 12, market inquiry activity picked up, and manufacturers’ price stabilization efforts helped keep prices relatively strong and stable. However, with an increase in arrivals of goods at ports and a lack of sustained positive demand support, market prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range.
2. International market conditions
August 12: Asian butadiene market—South Korea FOB quoted at USD 1,375–1,383 per ton, and China CFR quoted at USD 1,365–1,373 per ton; European market—Rotterdam FOB closed at USD 970–978 per ton, and Northwest Europe FD closed at EUR 1,085–1,093 per ton.
3. Industrial chain connections
Butadiene upstream products in China: C4 distillates from ethylene cracking and naphtha; downstream products: sulfolene, BS resins, styrene-butadiene rubber, SBS, ABS, polybutadiene rubber, etc. The raw material costs of upstream and downstream and terminal demand will indirectly affect the market trend of butadiene.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
