Coal prices fell first and then rose this month

Just when everyone thinks that the market is getting better this month, the number of arrival ships is increasing, and the price of coal can rise after the National Day; after the opening of the festival, people are shocked that there are few coal-pulling vessels arriving at the ports around the Bohai Sea. Apart from Huanghua Port, all the anchoring vessels in other ports are single-digit numbers; so, in the depressed market, weak demand, what is the price of coal going up? After the National Day, users in the southeastern coastal areas seem to be still immersed in the festival atmosphere. Coal demand continues the downturn of the National Day; there are few coal-pulling vessels in the port, and even eight anchor ships in Qinhuangdao Port. After the festival, the market continued to remain depressed, coupled with the resumption of normal transport along the Daqin Line, which led to the breakdown of the stalemate in market transactions.

With the increase of coal supply in the upstream, railway transportation accelerated, some traders began to loosen and quote prices according to the index slightly downward, while port redeployment continued to decrease, port stocks continued to increase around the Bohai Sea, and coal prices began to fall in the port market. According to the author's analysis, this round of coal price decline is temporary, and the decline is very limited. The follow-up market will gradually improve.

Firstly, with the cooling of the weather in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, heating load increases, which leads to the increase of coal demand, drives the price of pit mouth to rise, and promotes the price of port to be supported. Secondly, near winter, coal production and railway transportation will correspondingly increase the supply of power plants in the north, while the flow of coal to ports around the Bohai Sea will be reduced, which can alleviate the situation that the market supply exceeds demand. Thirdly, with the approaching of November, the northern part of China has entered the heating period in an all-round way, and the demand for coal has increased substantially; while the temperature in East China has dropped, the civil power consumption will also increase, and the coal consumption of power plants is expected to increase. Fourthly, with the increase of the start-up rate of industrial enterprises in the South and the restoration of industrial power consumption, the coal consumption of power plants will increase. Fifth, as well as the resumption of production in cement, building materials and other industries, the number of coal in the haulage market will increase, which will lead to a rebound in coal prices.

It is expected that after the power coal of the 5500 calorific capacity market of Bohai Rim Port falls to 580-585 CNY/ton, it will stop falling and stabilize, and rise in late October. The rise in coal prices at the end of this month, the scope of the increase, mainly depends on the severity of the state control of imported coal, as well as the demand of Southern Cement and other industries.