Coastal coal market is expected to improve coal price or stabilize

After the dull market period in September and October, it is about to usher in the cold winter season. With the help of the three advantages of winter storage, resumption of work and import restriction, the coastal coal market is expected to improve, and the railway and port coal shipment is expected to return to a high level. Industrial power consumption increased. The increase of infrastructure projects in Jiangsu and other places, as well as the increase of coal consumption of coal consuming enterprises such as cement, building materials and chemical industry, not only boosted the demand of coal, but also promoted the increase of urban power consumption and brought the demand of replenishment. Judging from the coal consumption of six coastal power plants in October, the situation is getting better, with an average daily coal consumption of 615000 tons, an increase of 101000 tons on a year-on-year basis, indicating a positive trend of economic stability. The market is ready to develop.

At present, the domestic coal price is close to the bottom, and many coal consuming enterprises that can not order or order a small amount of imported coal have recovered their enthusiasm to transport domestic coal for replenishment. In the third quarter, due to the impact of imported coal on the domestic market, and the increase of ultra-high pressure and other clean energy power transmission, the pressure on thermal power was reduced, and the price of coal in the Bohai port remained low. In October, as the domestic coal price falls to the range accepted by users, there is a sense of bottoming in the downstream, and the enthusiasm for hauling is restored, and the number of coal hauling ships to the port will increase. With the advent of cold air, the operation of hydropower is weakened. In winter, when coal consumption is at its peak, the civil power load of the power plant is increasing and the demand for coal is increasing. Since this year, the third industry and residential power consumption in southern provinces and regions has increased significantly, making up for the lack of industrial power load. After winter, with the advent of cold air, the pressure of thermal power increases due to the influence of the dry water and other factors during the flood season. The advantage of imported coal is weakened.

In recent years, Australia has a strong awareness of coal price fixing, and the CIF price continues to rise; at the same time, the domestic coal price remains low. It is worth noting that the rapid rise of Australian coal price and the extension of customs clearance time will inevitably lead to the reduction of price advantage and the improvement of enthusiasm of domestic coal hauling downstream. In the second two months of this year, although the market tends to be good, the domestic railway and port transport capacity are loose, and the negative factors such as high inventory of downstream power plants are indisputable facts, which continue to pressure the coastal coal market. The change of daily consumption of power plants and the increase and decrease of imported coal quantity also affect the enthusiasm of coal hauling in the lower reaches; at the same time, it also determines the trend of coal market. Although the demand of coal market slowed down obviously due to the impact of external environment, the economic indicators of industrial structure adjustment and new kinetic energy growth performed well, and the industrial economy continued to maintain the overall stable operation. It is predicted that in the later two months of this year, with the arrival of cold winter, with the implementation of the policy of restricting the import of coal, the coal market will shift to the direction of high supply and demand, and the price of coal will pick up; affected by the high inventory, the price of coal will not rise too much, and will remain between 560-580 CNY/ton.