Southeast Asia will become a net import area of fossil fuels

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019, pointing out that in the next 20 years, the growth rate of energy demand in Southeast Asia will be twice the global average speed, and the region will lead the global energy demand. According to IEA, Southeast Asia accounts for one tenth of the world's population, and its rapid economic growth will boost the reconstruction of the global economy and energy system. In recent years, Southeast Asian countries are committed to energy security and sustainable development. For example, the region should strengthen the supply of fuel and electricity, increase investment in energy infrastructure, and focus on improving energy efficiency. However, it should be noted that fuel consumption in Southeast Asia, especially oil consumption, has exceeded production capacity, and Southeast Asia is about to become a net fossil fuel import region. According to IEA, after 2000, the number of people using electricity in Southeast Asia increased by millions, with an average annual growth rate of 6%, making it one of the fastest growing regions in the world. However, 45 million people in the region still do not have access to electricity, and many families still rely on solid biomass as cooking fuel. IEA predicts that by 2030, Southeast Asia will be able to successfully popularize power applications. According to IEA, compared with 2000, energy demand in Southeast Asia has increased by more than 80% and fossil fuel consumption has doubled.

Among them, oil consumption accounts for the largest proportion, while coal consumption grows the fastest, and coal is mainly used in the field of power generation. In terms of renewable energy, IEA said that at present, renewable energy only meets about 15% of the energy demand in Southeast Asia, but the region has great potential for renewable energy development (excluding traditional solid biomass fuel). Compared with 2000, the hydropower generation in Southeast Asia has doubled, and biomass energy has developed rapidly in the field of heating and transportation. However, despite the declining cost of photovoltaic and wind power, the contribution is small and further planning and development are needed in the future. The IEA points out that under the "policy scenario", compared with the current situation, the energy demand of the region will increase by 60% by 2040, the economic scale will more than double, and the population will increase by 120 million (mainly in urban areas). However, the relatively slow growth of energy demand means that the economic structure of Southeast Asia has shifted to the less energy intensive manufacturing and service industries, which also reflects the improvement of energy efficiency. In terms of oil, the IEA said that by 2040, the demand for oil in Southeast Asia will exceed 9 million barrels per day, while at present it is slightly higher than 6.5 million barrels per day. In the future, oil will still account for the largest proportion of transportation in Southeast Asia, despite the development of biomass fuel and electric vehicles. In terms of coal, unlike the global phenomenon, the proportion of coal in the power generation structure of Southeast Asia increased in 2018.

According to the policy guidance of the region, the coal demand will rise steadily in the coming decades. In terms of natural gas, natural gas can meet the needs of urbanization and light industry development in Southeast Asia, and liquefied natural gas will also replace part of petroleum fuel. Industry is expected to be the biggest area of growth in natural gas demand, not electricity. However, Southeast Asian countries are increasingly dependent on natural gas imports and are highly competitive, which will increase the price of natural gas. In terms of carbon emissions, in recent years, Southeast Asia has seen a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution due to the large increase in fossil fuel consumption. IEA predicts that by 2040, the increase of fossil fuel consumption in Southeast Asia, especially the increase of coal consumption, will increase the carbon dioxide emissions of the region by 2 / 3 compared with the current level, reaching 2.4 billion tons. Among them, the proportion of carbon emissions in the total emissions in the power sector will exceed 42%.