Port coal market is temporarily stable, downward pressure is strong

After the increase of market inquiry and the continuous price reduction and selling, the pressure of traders' inventory is reduced and the psychological support of monthly long-term price is fermented, which stimulates traders to wait and see the price rising gradually, and the quotation temporarily stops falling and stabilizes. In terms of imported coal, due to the uncertainty of import policy and the high end inventory in China, the demand for imported coal in China is gradually cold, and the price of imported coal continues to callback. Major producing areas: the market of producing areas continued to decline. The port market has declined, the platform around the mine mouth has poor delivery, the downstream power plants and metallurgical chemical enterprises have limited procurement, the coal mine delivery is slow, and the price continues to decline. Among them, the coal price in Ordos, Inner Mongolia continued to decline by a small amount of 5-10 yuan; the raw coal price in some coal mines in northern Shanxi Province decreased by a large amount, reaching 15-30 yuan; the coal price in Yulin, Shaanxi Province declined steadily by 10-20 yuan. After the price reduction, the coal mine sales situation is generally considered that the current market supply is greater than the demand, and the price is temporarily difficult to stop falling and stabilize.

In the aspect of transfer transportation: the overall transfer in of northern port keeps a steady increase, but it is greatly weakened year on year due to the cost inversion and weak market; in the aspect of transfer out volume, the winter storage and transportation of small and medium-sized households gradually increases, and the backlog demand of seal shipping is released, so the transfer out volume accelerates to pick up, and the northern port continues to go to the storage steadily; in the aspect of shipping, the power plant increases the storage and replenishes the storage, and a large amount of imported coal is added Under the influence of influx and other factors, the supply and demand of domestic coal transportation tends to be stable. Since entering the "peak winter" stage, the power load and coal consumption in the South have increased. In the near future, the power plant has been actively transporting and replenishing the storage. However, due to the impact of the increase of imported coal, the coal consumption in the downstream power plant will not be in a tense situation for the time being, and the freight rate index of marine coal will fluctuate slightly. In terms of terminal consumption: the coastal area is still in the off-season of consumption, but with the gradual understanding of temperature, the weakening of water and electricity substitution and the entering of the year-round rush period of economy, the output of supporting thermal power continues to be good, and the daily consumption of six major coastal electric power keeps high year-on-year operation; in terms of inventory, the inventory of six major coastal electric power continues to fluctuate.

Weather forecast: in the next 10 days (November 7-16), the precipitation in most parts of the country is obviously less. Only in the north of Xinjiang, the south central part of northeast, the east of southwest, Hainan Island and other places, the accumulated precipitation is 10-20 mm, and in some areas 25-50 mm In the next 10 days, the average temperature in most parts of the country is 1-3 ℃ higher than that in the same period of the whole year, only the temperature in the northwest of Xinjiang and the north of Heilongjiang is slightly lower. At the same time, in the next 10 days, the influence of cold air in China will be gradually strengthened, with the main influence periods of 7-11 and 11-14. After 12 days, the temperature in most of North China and Northeast China will be 2-3 ℃ lower than that in the same period of the whole year. Trend judgment: Although the port quotation is temporarily stable, the port coal market is expected to remain relatively empty in the first ten days of the middle and lower period due to the suppression of high storage in the middle and lower reaches and the long-term cooperation import backlog, and the overall trend will continue to maintain a stable and downward trend.

In the late middle of the year, with the joint effect of the weak market reduction shipment and the winter storage and transportation of small and medium-sized power plants, the northern port may speed up the completion of the inventory removal, resulting in the short-term tightening of port supply; at the same time, after the coastal high consumption and periodic inventory removal, the demand for winter storage may be released, coupled with favorable factors such as the gradual rise of market bottom reading (long-term present and upside down, stimulating the increase of market coal demand) and the support of monthly coordinated price Vegetable support may boost traders' confidence in holding prices, drive coal prices to bottom and stabilize, and wait for the opportunity to rebound. However, due to the requirements of high terminal inventory, stable supply and long-term cooperation fulfillment rate, as well as the negative factors such as striving for bargaining power for annual coal long-term cooperation negotiation and the diversion of Haoji railway, the overall stabilization and rebound time and strength are expected to be limited. The specific inflection point still needs to wait for the completion of the stage de stocking of the middle and lower reaches, and at the same time, we need to pay attention to the change of the import coal policy and the impact of the emergency of the origin.