Forecasts of China's economic growth next year are slightly different

The global economic and financial system is facing new changes. Negative interest rate bonds have accounted for 25% of the total government bonds. More and more countries are adopting quantitative easing monetary policy In this context, is the economic growth bottoming out in 2020? What problems and risks should be paid attention to and prevented? Will loose monetary policy come back? Let's see the prediction of chief economists of famous domestic and foreign institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, CCB international, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs Gaohua, Changjiang Securities, Guotai Junan at the annual meeting of China International Financial Society.

Judgment 1: since the beginning of the year, the world economic growth will slow down in 2020, famous international institutions have repeatedly lowered their global economic growth expectations. In fact, the economic growth around the world has indeed slowed down to "crawling" speed. The International Monetary Fund's growth forecast for this year's global economy has been cut to its lowest level since the great recession of 2008-2009. Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase in China, said that from a global perspective, economic growth, geopolitical conflicts and the judgment of global central bank policy trend are the three main lines to observe the global economy next year. It is expected that the global economic growth in 2020 will be 0.1-0.2% lower than this year. Cui Li, chief economist and head of macro research at CCB international, said that from the perspective of economic fundamentals, economic growth in 2020 will be slower than this year, but the global economy is unlikely to enter recession, and it can basically achieve low-level growth. Supporting factors include strong US consumption and employment performance, easing pressure on manufacturing next year, and possibly better trade next year. Qiao Hong, chief economist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Greater China, predicted that the global growth rate next year will be almost the same as this year, at 3.2%, mainly driven by other emerging economies.

Judgment 2: the growth rate of China's economy is either flat or slightly down. For China's economic growth, Zhu Haibin predicted that 6.1% will be achieved in the whole year this year, and the adjustment range in 2020 will be smaller than that in 2019, and the growth rate may drop to 5.9%. In the future, China's economic growth may be a series of small L-shaped. According to Cui Li, although China's macroeconomic policies are unlikely to be loose, the policies already issued in the early stage will further play a role. Domestic demand can gradually stabilize and support China's economic growth to achieve 6% growth. Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities, expects that the growth target will be lowered next year. Meanwhile, the active fiscal policy will be more active and the stable monetary policy will be more stable. If the exchange rate is more flexible, China's economic growth will generally perform well. At present, some leading indicators have shown signs of economic stabilization.

Judgment 3: China's economy needs to pay more attention to stagflation, economic and trade frictions, and deleveraging. At the same time, affected by African swine fever, the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3% year-on-year in September, and some institutions also predicted that CPI would maintain "three times" in October. According to Wu Ge, there are three key words constraining China's economy this year: deleveraging, trade friction and stagflation. Following the three main lines, we can figure out the economic context of next year. In terms of price data, "stagflation" is expected to reach a historic high around next year's Spring Festival, after which it will subside marginally. Once the influence of "stagflation" subsides, the entanglement between growth and inflation may be relieved. Hua Changchun, global chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities, also said that the short-term constraint is "stagflation". It is expected that the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year will be the time when stagflation is more difficult, and the most difficult time for the economy is the first quarter of next year.

We do not believe that the policy will be tightened, but there will be restrictions on credit expansion, and policy space will be opened in the second quarter. We are more optimistic that monetary and fiscal cooperation will support manufacturing industry to further reduce costs, such as targeted interest rate reduction for medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry. Hua Changchun said. At present, the influence of deleveraging on private enterprises and state-owned enterprises has not disappeared. Compared with the state-owned enterprises, the credit spread of private enterprises is still at a historical high level, and deleveraging has a huge impact on private enterprises. At the same time, the administrative constraints of deleveraging on the asset liability ratio of state-owned enterprises have not seen more relief. The impact of deleveraging on China's economy will be marginal now and next year. When it comes to Sino US economic and trade frictions, Wu Ge believes that the marginal effect of Sino US economic and trade frictions on the negative impact of A-share investors has declined.

What's more, we have opened the 7-level exchange rate gap. In the open space, next year, we can make more use of currency, Finance and exchange rate policy to cope with external shocks, making China's economic operation more flexible. In Qiao Hong's view, Sino US economic and trade frictions will still be the uncertain factors that affect the economy for a long time. Judgment 4: interest rate reduction will be used cautiously. Some insiders call 2018, 2019 to now the stage of global monetary policy re easing. But on the other hand, under the condition of loose monetary policy, the positive effect of monetary policy on economic pulling is gradually reduced, and the negative effect and even some risks are accumulating. Almost all of the chief economists interviewed agreed that the major central banks would use the tool of interest rate reduction cautiously. According to Zhu Haibin, it is very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. At present, it is more a wait-and-see attitude. The previous several interest rate cuts have been implemented