Nineteen agencies forecast an average GDP growth rate of 6.1%

Recently, a number of agencies have forecast the relevant data of the first three quarters, and the overall economic operation has remained stable and steady. Today's newspaper focuses on the third quarter economic and financial data for interviews and interpretations.

The third quarter of China's economy "report card" will be released next week. Looking back on the first three quarters, China will coordinate and stabilize growth, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit people's livelihood, prevent risks and maintain stability, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment of macro-policies, firmly grasp the implementation of the "six stability" policy, and maintain overall stable and progressive economic development.

The Journal of Securities found that up to now, 19 institutions have forecast the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter from a year ago, with the maximum value of 6.5%, the minimum value of 6.00%, and the average value of 6.1%.

Guotai Junan (17.790, 0.29, 1.66%) Chief Economist Hua Changchun of the Securities Research Institute said that GDP growth in the third quarter was expected to be 6.1% year-on-year. The economy continued to adjust in the third quarter. In the recent three months, it was mainly dragged down by social zero. Automobile consumption consumed part of its purchasing power ahead of time in June's promotional activities, which led to the decline of social zero. Investment is also continuously affected by manufacturing and real estate investment. Capital construction has not been stimulated because of the time lag of capital transmission to the project. It is expected that the follow-up targeted interest rate cuts and financing support policies for manufacturing industry will emerge soon. Mingming, chief fixed income analyst of CITIC Securities (22.940, 0.55, 2.46%) said in an interview with Securities Daily that the economy will remain resilient, production, consumption may stabilize and investment will weaken. The low growth rate of industrial value added in July and August may have hit the year's low. Consumption may stabilize under the low base effect, and the possible recovery of completion may lead to a certain degree of Post-Real estate cycle consumption. The policy effect of encouraging consumption may also appear at the end of the year. The economy may rebound in September similar to March and June this year, and GDP growth is more likely to stabilize in the third and fourth quarters. Xiao Yunliang, chief macro-analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that although the decline in industrial production has dragged down GDP growth, service industry production has formed a certain support for economic growth. GDP is expected to grow by 6.1% year-on-year in the third quarter.

From the perspective of monetary policy trend, Mingming said that since the beginning of the year, the requirement for monetary policy in government work reports has been throughout the year, taking into account both the long and short term, and promoting high-quality economic development. The structural characteristics of monetary policy are prominent and innovation is constant. Aiming at the financing problems of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, the policy combination of credit, bond and equity has begun to take effect. On the premise that China's economic growth meets the target, the priority of economic development quality is higher than the growth rate, and the fourth quarter may be an important observation window of monetary policy.