In November, PVC Continues to Decline, Market Shows Signs of Stabilization

November 28th, according to news from China

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, in November, the Chinese PVC spot market continued the downward trend from the previous three months, with prices continuing to fluctuate and decline, and the price decrease continued to slow down. As of November 28, the average price of PVC in China was 4,452 CNY/ton, with a monthly price drop of 2.3%.

II. Market Analysis

This month, the PVC spot market in China maintained a weak and fluctuating pattern. Under the influence of supply and demand pressures, prices continued to decline throughout the month. Near the end of the month, the PVC market in China showed clear signs of stabilization, with prices slightly rebounding, but the price increase was very limited.

Overall, the PVC spot market in November was generally weak. Specifically, first, the cost support was insufficient, as upstream crude oil and ethylene prices declined, and the price of calcium carbide also fell, negatively impacting the price of calcium carbide feedstock. Additionally, the futures market struggled to establish a clear trend, leading the spot market to follow the prevailing market conditions, with prices fluctuating downward. Furthermore, there was significant supply and demand pressure, with social inventory levels remaining at a high to moderate level. In terms of supply and demand, PVC manufacturers continued to operate at high production rates, with output increasing, and the market remained in a state of oversupply. The market is currently in a process of continuous destocking, and there are signals of bottoming out and stabilization. Downstream buyers mainly purchase through pricing, with low enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases, resulting in a subdued market atmosphere. Overall, the market is still primarily driven by rigid demand, with moderate trading activity. As of November 28, the mainstream price range for SG5 type calcium carbide-based PVC in China was around 4,480-4,530 CNY/ton.

Regarding upstream calcium carbide, since November, calcium carbide prices have continued the downward trend from October, though the pace of price decline has noticeably slowed. According to monitored data, the price decline for calcium carbide in November was 0.55%. Constrained by weak costs and weighed down by supply-demand dynamics, the PVC market shows no signs of improvement.

III. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the supply and demand pattern of PVC will not change much in the short term, mainly because the operating rates of manufacturers remain stable, and both enterprise inventories and market inventories are high. The market is still in the inventory clearance phase, and considering that prices are gradually stabilizing and rising at the end of the month, there may be room for a market rebound in the future.