Port coal price will rise steadily this week

This week, both positive and negative factors are in place, and the positive news is slightly more than negative; the coastal coal market is gradually stabilizing, and the number of coal ships arriving at the port around Bohai Sea will slowly increase. This week, the price of coal in the Bohai Sea port market will rise steadily and slightly. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is about 80000 tons higher than that of the same period last year, but the inventory of each link is on the high side, especially the coal storage of power plants is still high. At present, 97 million tons of coal are stored in key power plants nationwide, 16.53 million tons of coal are stored in six coastal power plants, and the available days for coal storage are up to about 28 days; the power plant keeps a high inventory, which can meet the needs of heating load in winter, but also curbs the enthusiasm for subsequent procurement and replenishment. There are also many favorable factors. The North has entered the winter, Inner Mongolia, North China, northeast and other places have entered the heating season successively, the coal consumption has increased, which supports the price of the pit mouth. With the advent of cold air, the civil power load picks up, the coal consumption in East China will increase, and the demand will recover slowly.

On the upstream side, affected by the small increase in spot price of the port, coal mines in northern Shanxi, Northern Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places were affected by the wind, and the prices of some coal mines were slightly increased by 5 CNY/ton, some of which remained stable. In terms of ports, last week, the port market coal price fell below the annual long-term agreement, close to the monthly long-term agreement, and the cost performance ratio gradually prevailed; some small and medium-sized power plants released part of the demand, and some users had a bottom-up mentality, which supported that the port coal price would not continue to fall, and some coal types rose slightly. The weather in South China is relatively high, while the climate in East China is suitable, the civil power load is not high, and the industrial power consumption remains stable; the daily consumption of six coastal power plants keeps stable around 580000 tons, without significant improvement, and the power plant inventory and Bohai port inventory also maintain a high median level. With the supplement of Changxie coal and imported coal, the power plant demand is average, and the ships pulling coal from the North continue to maintain a low level. At present, except that there are more than 20 anchor ships in Huanghua port and Qinhuangdao port, the number of anchor ships in other ports is single digit, some of them are even zero. When the price of domestic trade coal fell sharply in the early stage, the price of imported coal continued to rise, leading to the weakening of the price advantage; in addition, more and more ports restricted the import, the import of coal by power plants decreased, and the market transaction was colder than that in the early stage. In addition, the port quota in jiangnei, Fujian, Guangzhou and East China has been tightened, and it is also difficult to declare in other places; however, it will not have much impact on the coal input of power plants in November, and it is expected that the coal import of China will still reach about 25 million tons in November. In December, the state may introduce more stringent measures to restrict the import of coal, the number of imported coal will be significantly reduced, and the domestic coal transportation market will continue to improve.