Rations are ready for heating season in power plant

At present, many areas in the north have gradually entered the winter heating period. Compared with previous years, this year, the difficulty of electricity and coal supply is reduced. The release of high-quality production capacity in China's main coal producing areas has accelerated, coal production has increased significantly, and the overall power coal supply has shown a loose trend. All power plants plan ahead and actively carry out coal storage in winter to prepare enough "rations" for heating in winter. Since this year, while promoting coal production capacity reduction, China's coal industry has continuously increased the proportion of advanced production capacity to ensure stable supply of coal. While the domestic coal supply is stable, the imported coal volume is increasing year on year, and the market supply is loose. On October 18, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in September, the national raw coal output was 324.14 million tons, an increase of 4.4% year on year. From January to September, the national raw coal output was 2736.45 million tons, up 4.5% year on year. In the first nine months, China's coal production concentration increased steadily. From January to September, the total raw coal output of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia is 1.925 billion tons.

In September, there were six provinces with a monthly output of raw coal of over 10 million tons, namely Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou and Shandong. The total output of raw coal was 274.246 million tons, accounting for 84.61% of the national output. From January to September, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi have the largest production. According to the previous report issued by China Coal Industry Association, with the continuous release of new coal production, coal production will further increase. According to the survey, this year's coal production will increase by about 100 million tons. Zhang Feilong, director of Yimei Research Institute, analyzed that after the national day, the output in the main production area was released rapidly, while the demand for haulage by shippers was weak, which led to the accumulation of coal mine and platform inventory, and the high level of mine mouth market was reversed. Since the beginning of this year, coal import has been increasing, which effectively complements the domestic coal market. Data shows that in the first three quarters, China imported 250.57 million tons of coal, an increase of 9.5% year on year, 3.7 percentage points faster than the first half of the year. "The advantage of imported coal still exists, squeezing the space of coal purchase in the domestic trade market."

Zhang Feilong said that due to the impact of the safety accident at the beginning of this year, the domestic coal price is relatively strong, while under the downward pressure of the economy, the demand in the international market turns weak, coupled with abundant supply, the price of foreign trade coal continues to decline, and the price gap between domestic and foreign prices continues to expand, reaching a maximum of 150 CNY/ton. Power industry is a big consumer of coal, and the primary task of heating season is to ensure the full supply of power and coal. Recently, the China Federation of electric power enterprises issued the analysis and forecast report on the supply and demand situation of national electric power in the first three quarters of 2019. It is recommended to ensure the effective supply of electric coal, increase the coordination and coordination efforts, and further release the high-quality coal production capacity in eastern Mongolia and other regions; make full use of the international and domestic markets, continue to play a good role in the supplement of imported coal, and ensure the supply of electric coal this winter and next spring, especially in the East Coal for power supply and heating in North China.

With the weather turning cold, the demand of coal for power plants and urban heating is increasing. In order to meet the needs of people's livelihood, the railway department has taken effective measures and carefully organized coal transportation. The reporter learned from China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. that as of October 23, 45568 electric coal vehicles were sent daily, up 7.8% year on year. On the one hand, the railway department strengthened the organization of coal transportation, especially the construction of Haoji Railway cargo source organization and loading and unloading capacity, and at the same time, strengthened the coal transportation of Daqin, Tanghu and vari lines, and organized the operation of ten thousand ton trains; on the other hand, it made full use of the capacity of new maps, especially the increased freight capacity of main trunk lines such as zujinshan, Jingguang, Jinghu, Jingjiu, Jingha, Shenshan, fengsha and Shitai, Ensure the effective source of goods to be delivered in time. It is understood that with the increase of production and shipment volume in the upstream, the railway department is taking advantage of the situation, and the Datong Qinhuangdao line, Shuohuang line and Mengji Hebei line are making efforts to speed up the foreign transportation, make up for the task deficit in the early stage, and a large amount of coal flows to power plants and ports.

The main coal generating ports should strengthen contact with all parties of the port, shipping and power of the mine road, accelerate the coal delivery, and keep increasing the coal storage in the downstream. According to the monitoring data, as of October 31, the inventory of national key power plants reached a new record, reaching 96.61 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons compared with the end of September, with a stable replenishment pace. Zhang Feilong said that according to the daily consumption and inventory level in the same period of previous years, it has exceeded the demand level in the same period. It is predicted that in November, the coal price will be mainly based on the shock to build the bottom. The supply increment in the upstream will be further released, while the demand in the downstream will be insufficient under the background of macro-economic pressure, the inventory in each link will remain high, and the coal price will fall to the green range. At present, China's macro-economic pressure still exists, and the power generation and consumption data have declined significantly year on year. In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and below the boom and bust line for six consecutive months.

Under the background of macroeconomic pressure, the growth rate of electricity consumption in China has declined significantly year on year. In terms of power generation, from January to September, China's total power generation reached 5296.73 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3%, down 4.4 percentage points from the same period in 2018. The data shows that the cumulative growth rate of power generation and consumption has declined by more than 4 percentage points year on year, which indicates that the pressure brought by the macro-economy is relatively large this year, and the growth rate of thermal power generation is far lower than expected due to the increase of new energy generation substitution ratio. This year, due to the weak freezing expectation and the weak purchase demand in heating season, coupled with the port market coal price entering the downward channel, the demand for haulage slowed down, and the high mine mouth price in the "three West" main production area fell sharply. Among them, the total price of large and medium-sized coal mines in Northern Shaanxi Province has decreased by 30-60 CNY/ton, and there is still room for further reduction along with the sharp decline of the bidding price of the three major mines in the region. In Dongsheng District, Inner Mongolia, the price of coal mine mouth has decreased by 20-40 CNY/ton, while in Yiqi District, the price of coal mine mouth has decreased by 30-50 CNY/ton. In the northern part of Shanxi Province, the decrease of mine mouth price is relatively small, and the cumulative decrease is 10-25 CNY/ton. In November, heating season and annual long-term cooperation may form a certain bottom support for coal price. It is expected that the coal price in November will be based on shocks. It is worth noting that in November, China is about to open the annual coal and electricity long-term cooperative negotiation in 2020, and the changes in the benchmark price and the annual and monthly long-term cooperative bundling sales will also reconstruct the support point of the market coal.