Coal demand increases slowly and the market is optimistic in winter

At present, the coastal coal market is in a stage of slow improvement. Since the implementation of the measures to restrict the import of coal in the middle of November, the customs of Shanghai, Hainan, Fujian, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other places in China have forbidden customs declaration in other places, and some ports have stopped receiving and unloading imported coal; since last week, the mood of domestic coal producers and traders has stabilized, the phenomenon of goods rejection has decreased, and the awareness of price fixing is strong, and some low sulfur medium calorie coal has even been reported as 2-5 CNY/ton rising according to the index However, due to the impact of high downstream inventory, the user's counter-offer is low and the volume of transactions is limited. In terms of ports around the Bohai Sea, affected by the high level of downstream inventory, most of the main power plants under the five major power generation companies are actively consuming their own inventory, and the enthusiasm for hauling is not high; after the arrival of cold air, the temperature in Shandong and East China dropped significantly, and the small and medium-sized power plants in the Yangtze River Delta began to increase the purchase volume, and the coal hauling ships arriving at ports around the Bohai Sea increased slightly, mainly to Changxing Island Zhoushan, Jiangyin, Taicang, etc. So far, Qinhuangdao port has increased to 27 anchor ships, of which up to 25 have gone through formalities.

From the current coal consumption situation of the power plant, with the advent of cold air and the increase of civil power load, the daily consumption of the power plant is expected to continue to increase; in addition, the impact of limiting the import of coal is gradually deepened, the inventory of the power plant is slowly declining, and the enthusiasm of replenishment is gradually restored. In addition, affected by factors such as economic stabilization and recovery and industrial power consumption recovery, the daily consumption of power plants has remained at 80000-100000 tons year on year since October, and the situation is optimistic. Since the beginning of winter, the operation of hydropower has weakened, the pressure of thermal power has increased, and the daily consumption of power plants continues to maintain a small growth trend compared with the same period last year. Up to now, the daily consumption of six major coastal power plants has risen to 650000 tons, an increase of 100000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the daily consumption of zheneng power plant, which is responsible for about half of the power generation tasks in Zhejiang Province, jumped to 116000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons or 20% compared with the number of coal consumption on November 4; while the daily consumption of power supply rose to 29700 tons, an increase of 16100 tons or almost double compared with that on November 4.

With the coming of cold winter, it is expected that the daily consumption of coastal power plants will rise to a medium high level of 680000-700000 tons at the end of this month and the beginning of next month; in addition, the arrival of imported coal will be cut back, and the high inventory of power plants will be actively consumed. It is expected that in the first ten days of next month, the enthusiasm of users for transportation will be improved, and the number of ships sent to the north will increase; by the middle of next month, the activity of the domestic coal market will increase, and the coastal coal transportation will be more busy. It is worth noting that in recent years, coal mine accidents occur frequently, and subsequent safety supervision expectations are more strict. Some coal mines have experienced tentative increase, resource tightening will spread, and high-quality coal may be in short supply. In the cold winter, the port market coal price will rebound slightly. It is expected that the low sulfur montmorillonite will take the lead in the rise, which will drive the market to be optimistic and the transportation to be tight; however, due to the influence of policy regulation, high power plant inventory and other factors, the rise of coal price is limited.