Jinzhong coal mine has been shut down completely

In recent days, with frequent accidents in coal mines, it is expected that the nationwide safety inspection will be further tightened in the later period, but even so, it is still difficult to boost the power coal market. Based on the fact that the annual long-term price of coking coal in 2020 is mainly stable, coupled with the impact of Pingyao major coal mine accidents, the market of coking coal will be greatly boosted, and in the later stage, the market of coking coal will gradually stop falling and stabilize. On November 18, gas explosion occurred in 9102 working face of ermugou coal mine in Pingyao County, killing 15 people and injuring 9. The main production of the accident coal mine is coking coal and lean coal.

The local coal mine was immediately shut down, and the coal mine in Jinzhong City was completely shut down on the 20th. At the same time, all Pingyao coal mines have been shut down, involving about 5.7 million tons of energy. On November 19, the teleconference of coal mine safety warning in Shanxi Province was held. The meeting stressed that we should continue to deepen the "three special actions" in accordance with the decision-making and deployment of the provincial Party committee and the provincial government, further improve and strengthen safety production measures, strengthen safety supervision and inspection, and strengthen the implementation of safety production responsibilities. We should effectively prevent and resolve major safety risks, strictly prevent the rebound of accidents, and resolutely curb the occurrence of more than major accidents. The State Administration of coal mine safety has also issued warning information on coal mine accidents, which requires all coal mining enterprises to learn from the accident, draw lessons from one case and draw lessons from another, conscientiously implement the main responsibility of the enterprise, and strictly organize production in accordance with the requirements of laws and regulations. All localities should seriously analyze the outstanding problems existing in coal mine safety, combine with the characteristics of coal mine safety production in the fourth quarter, strengthen the law enforcement and inspection work pertinently, and resolutely prevent and contain the occurrence of major accidents in coal mines.

But the next day, on November 20, an accident happened in Liangbaosi coal mine in Jiaxiang County, Jining City, Shandong Province. Liangbaosi coal mine is a provincial coal mine, located in Jiaxiang County, Jining City, with an approved production capacity of 3.6 million tons / year. It mainly produces high quality power coal with ultra-low sulfur, ultra-low phosphorus and high calorific value. It is expected that the coal mine safety inspection will be strengthened in the later period, especially in Jining area of Shandong Province. At present, there are 104 coal mines in Shandong Province with an approved production capacity of 140.81 million tons / year. Among them, there are 45 coal mines in Jining City with an approved production capacity of 83.66 million tons / year, accounting for 59% of the total production capacity of Shandong Province. The fourth quarter has always been a critical period of coal mine safety production and an accident prone period. On November 18, Huang Yuzhi, Secretary of the Party group and director general of the State Administration of coal mine safety, presided over the Party group meeting, stressing that we should deeply learn from the "11.18" gas explosion and other lessons of Liaoning Wanda coal mine and Shandong Longyun coal mine, especially the ermugou coal mine in Pingyao, Shanxi Province, and combine the characteristics of the end of the year and the beginning of the year to "open small stoves" for key coal producing areas and key coal mining enterprises, and dispatch working groups to increase Contact with guidance, secret investigation and supervision, strengthen disaster management, risk control and hidden danger investigation, and resolutely prevent and contain major accidents in coal mines.

In this case, the safety inspection on coal mines in the later period will inevitably be further tightened, which will lead to limited production of coal mines in the production area and support the price of power coal to a certain extent. However, on the premise that the shipping cost of port power coal continues to hang upside down, and the stock of power plants and ports is high, even though the restrictions on imported coal are further strict, the coal price will only be supported in the short term, but the increase is limited. Up to now, the coal storage of six coastal power plants is close to the high level of 17 million tons, the daily consumption is maintained around 600000 tons, and the available days of coal storage are as high as 27 days, once to nearly 29 days; while the national key power plant inventory is still maintained at about 98 million tons. Even though the coal consumption is higher than that of the same period last year, the coal storage capacity of the power plant is still high under the continuous supply of Changxie coal. Most of the power plants are actively consuming their own inventory, and the enthusiasm to transport and replenish the storage is not high; at present, except for the increase of anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port, other ports around the Bohai Sea continue to maintain low anchor ships.

Half of November has passed. North China, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China have entered the heating season, and the daily consumption of power plants has increased. However, the temperature in South China is relatively high, while the temperature in East China is suitable, and the civil power load is relatively low. According to the weather forecast: in November and December, the west of Northwest China (Xinjiang), the west of Qinghai Tibet Plateau and Northeast China will be nearly all year to cold, and the North China, southwest and other places will be nearly all year or slightly warm, while the east of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, Jiangnan and South China will be mostly warm, in which the north-east is the coldest, while the South inland is the most warm. In terms of temperature, warm winter has limited support for coal price. In spite of the decrease of rainwater and the decrease of hydropower output, the coal input of power plants along the south coast and along the river is generally higher than the consumption, resulting in the high inventory. In addition, at the end of the year, the transportation task has entered the sprint stage. The main coal transportation railways, such as the Daqin line and the Mengji line, have been fully opened to speed up the shipment and increase the number of coal shipments to the Bohai Sea port.

In addition, several closures caused by severe weather, such as strong winds, have promoted the inventory of the Bohai Sea port to remain high and the transportation to remain loose. The market news on November 20 showed that recently, the number of new inquires in northern ports is relatively small, a small number of inquires are mainly for medium and low calorific value coal, and some high-quality medium and low calorific value coal are quoted on a small scale based on cost and other factors. At present, the mentality of the supplier and the demander is different, and after the mine accident in Pingyao, Shanxi, the main place of origin, the market wait-and-see is increasing, and the overall transaction activity is low. However, the coal price of the production area continues to be weak as a whole. The sales situation of some coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province has improved, and the inventory has decreased. Affected by the mining disaster in ermugou, Pingyao, Shanxi Province, the coal price in some areas may be increased, but the overall demand side support is not strong, and the coal price in the production area will continue to be weak. At present, the chemical industry demand in Inner Mongolia is general. Except for the long-term cooperation of some large groups, the enthusiasm of traders' platform shipping is not strong, the overall demand is not significantly improved, and the support for price increase is insufficient. In the later stage, with the temperature falling, the mine is expected to have certain demand, and the wait-and-see mood will increase in the near future.

The production and marketing of most mines in the north of Shanxi Province are balanced, and the coal price is stable temporarily. On the whole, it is expected that the power coal market as a whole will continue to maintain a weak and stable operation in the short term. Under the pressure of inventory in the middle and lower reaches, even if there is more rebound, it is relatively limited, and the coal price shows a small fluctuation trend. In addition, the domestic coking coal market operates stably. In terms of production area, after the price adjustment in the early stage, the pressure of coal mine inventory has slightly eased, but the demand of coke enterprises in the downstream continues to be weak. The enthusiasm of coal mines and coal washing plants is affected by this, and most of them are determined by sales. Affected by the accident, some downstream coke enterprises are more worried about the expansion of the subsequent scope of influence, and are now ready to start the replenishment. But at present, there is no final conclusion on the steel coke game, and coal mines also have strong price sentiment. It is expected that the short-term coking coal price will still maintain stable operation.