September 28th, News
This monitoring is based on spot price data and the mean difference analysis framework. Currently, the PVC spot price in China is in a strong consolidation range with a bullish bias. In the medium to long term, prices are at a medium-low level, with the overall physical market showing low trading activity and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Subsequently, attention can be paid to the impact of demand recovery on price increases.
I. Table of Finite Differences
Note: The most recent data available as of September 27, 2026; real-time data is recommended.
| Type of Average Difference | Today’s Value (2026.09.27) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.09.26) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| D5 (5-day average difference) | 2.00 | 4.60 | - |
| D10 (10-day average difference) | -1.70 | -8.80 | + |
| D20 (20-day average difference) | -97.90 | -103.40 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current average difference change combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current PVC price trend is oscillating, as the direction of change in the three averages from the previous day is not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating market. Specifically, it is in a strong consolidation phase with a bullish attribute.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Over the 60-day and three-month horizons, prices are at the median level, with relatively balanced short-term upside and downside potential. On the one-year horizon, prices remain in the lower-to-mid range, suggesting limited room for a medium- to long-term decline; however, if demand-side support strengthens, there is scope for an upward correction.
V. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VI. Recent Spot Market Developments
Plant operations: On September 23, 2026, the Shandong Xinfafa PVC plant commenced normal operations, with a total capacity of 1.1 million tons; the ex‑factory price for calcium carbide‑based SG‑5 is RMB 4,800 per ton, payable in cash. Meanwhile, the Zhongyan Inner Mongolia PVC plant is running at full capacity, with a capacity of 400,000 tons; the quoted price for calcium carbide‑based SG‑5 is RMB 4,530 per ton, payable by accepted bill of exchange.
Market Activity: Since late September 2026, the PVC spot market has remained sluggish overall, with dealers making only modest adjustments to their offers. A pronounced wait-and-see sentiment prevails, resulting in lackluster trading volumes. On September 23, the mainstream quotation for calcium‑carbide‑based Grade 5 PVC in Linyi ranged from RMB 4,720 to 4,770 per ton; on September 22, the prevailing ex‑factory price for the same grade in Zibo was between RMB 4,690 and 4,740 per ton, down slightly by RMB 10–30 compared with the previous day.
VII. Risk Disclosure
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
