Port market will remain stable and rising

The coal market in the port continued to be mainly stable, with structural growth. Recently, affected by the re upgrading of imported coal control, the continuous downturn of northern port transfer and frequent mine disasters in the production area, the expectation of tighter market supply is divergent. In addition, the daily consumption is on the rise, and the purchase of winter storage is steadily increasing, which further supports the traders' reluctance to sell the strong price momentum. However, the middle and lower reaches of high storage suppression are still strong, and the coal trade fair is approaching, and the terminal still maintains the rigid purchase with high price acceptance High. Therefore, both sides of the port trading and investment are mainly waiting for the moment, and the overall price is stable (high calorie coal).

The supply and demand structure of medium and low calorie coal is tight, and the price continues to rise slightly. In terms of imported coal, the newly increased domestic demand is weak, the stock is still in competitive mining, and the overall price is stable and declining. ※ main production area: the overall pressure continues to be short-term, and there is a small rise in some areas. The winter safety inspection in Yulin, Shaanxi Province started to superimpose the impact of the mine disaster, which gradually spread, and the demand for commodities increased during the traders' period, and the price increased by a small margin; the impact of the mine disaster in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has not been fermented yet, and the demand is still weak, and the price is still down by a small margin, with a weak boost; as a whole, The weak demand is still restrained, and the coal price of the production area is still under short-term pressure.

In terms of transit transportation: the transfer in and transfer out of northern port is still weak year on year, and the inventory of northern port is relatively low and remains relatively high; in terms of maritime transportation, the pressure of thermal power in coastal area is reduced under the condition of increasing UHV power transmission; however, the power consumption of civil power and tertiary industry is increased, which drives the thermal power generation to continue to maintain growth, making the demand for coal in southern and Northern China increase Potential. However, despite the growth of thermal power generation, the inventory of major power plants is still at a high level, daily consumption has not increased significantly, the enthusiasm of coal transportation is not high, and the main mode is long-term cooperative transportation, and the market coal transportation price is stable.

In terms of terminal consumption: the coastal economy has entered the year-end sprint period with short-term cold air intrusion, and industrial and civil support has become stronger, driving the coastal daily consumption to pick up slightly. In terms of inventory: steady progress was made in preparation for the winter and daily consumption was not significantly improved. The six coastal power inventories continued to maintain high volatility.

Weather forecast: in late November, most parts of the country will have different degrees of precipitation, among which the accumulated precipitation in the southeast of Northeast China, the West and south of Huanghuai River, Jianghuai River, Hanshui River Basin, the middle and north of Jiangnan, Sichuan Basin and Guizhou Province is generally 10-30mm, and the local precipitation is 40-60mm. In ten days, the temperature in the north of Xinjiang is 1-3 ℃ lower than that in the same period of the whole year. The temperature in the Middle East and northeast of Inner Mongolia, the east of Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, most of South China, Yunnan and Qinghai Tibet Plateau is 1-2 ℃ higher than that in the same period of the whole year. The temperature in the rest areas is close to that of the whole year. In the last ten days, the cold air in China is more frequent, accompanied by a large range of rain and snow weather, and the main influence period is 22 days and nights 25, 26-27 and the end of ten days.

Trend judgment: the short-term (before the beginning of December) long air port will continue to struggle, and the overall trend will continue to be stable and rising: the demand for high calorie coal is temporarily weak, weak and stable to be increased; the supply of medium and low calorie coal is weak and strong, and the small fluctuation exploration will continue.

Good news: the mine disaster increases the safety and environmental protection of the production area is expected to be stricter, and the production in winter is limited, or it will affect the release of the production area supply; in addition, due to the continuous downturn of the transfer in of the northern port and the limited customs clearance of the imported coal, the periodic structure of the market supply is expected to be tighter and stronger; however, with the year-on-year strong coastal daily consumption and the recovery in the near future (the temperature is about to drop), the inventory is slightly weaker, or it will support the terminal winter storage procurement to continue to be stable It is expected that the market bottom reading and import coal and natural gas (gas prices continue to rise) alternative demand will increase gradually, or will stimulate demand to strengthen in a short time. Thus, the short-term tight balance between supply and demand of the port is expected to continue to rise, which will help traders to firm their confidence in price stability and price exploration.

Negative: port supply is still relatively loose in general, terminal inventory is still high and affected by economic pressure, warming expectation, environmental protection production restriction and the early spring festival, daily consumption in peak season is difficult to exceed the expected growth, and safe coverage can be achieved just after normal compensation is maintained, so the probability of short-term large-scale centralized mining is small; at the same time, in the context of the cancellation of the linkage mechanism of electricity and coal prices next year, the price of electricity tends to fall in the medium term (reducing costs and stabilizing economic requirements) The power plant has strong willingness to "press market price, reduce long-term cooperation and squeeze profits", and the price inclination of the national development and Reform Commission is expected to be large; therefore, the coal price of the port will continue to be depressed before the coal trade conference. Special attention: the impact of emergency safety events (Shanxi coal mine accidents) on the production area supply, the process of the middle and lower reaches of the reservoir and the start-up node of the just compensation.