Power coal: where is the market contradiction in the silver ten market?

It has entered the late October, the power coal market is still weak operation, the silver ten market has not been reflected, the overall market shows a weak trend. At present, the contradiction of coal moving market is still focused on the demand side. Subsequent weather conditions, industrial recovery and import policies will greatly affect the change of demand side. Due to the weak purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users and other factors, the key electricity inventory has continued to rise in the near future, but the rate of inventory rise is slower than last year. It is analyzed that the reason is that under the background of high inventory year-on-year and low daily consumption, the willingness of the power plant to actively replenish the inventory is weak, and the procurement demand is difficult to be released, so as to suppress the coal price.

According to the trend of coal price in the later stage, non electric power enterprises tend to hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the purchase of new imported coal based on the uncertainty of imported coal measures and other factors. The domestic coal purchase is still dominated by long-term cooperative coal, and the enthusiasm of coal purchase market is not high. Generally speaking, the domestic coal market is characterized by loose supply and insufficient demand, which makes it difficult for the short-term coal price to stop falling and stabilize. The increase of coal storage demand in the later winter may have some support for the coal price, and it is expected that the decline in the later period will be limited. According to the analysis of the latest research report of Zhongtai securities, although the thermal power output has improved, the domestic output has been released orderly and the imported coal with no obvious tightening policy has been temporarily released. The industry as a whole presents a weak state of supply and demand due to the high inventory in the middle and lower reaches. On the one hand, we should observe the change of import policy, on the other hand, we should observe the replenishment of power plants in the heating season. Since October, The weakness of coal price is downward, and the port power coal price is close to the green range of 500-570 CNY/ton guided by the policy. As a whole, it is expected that the weakness of coal price is mainly fluctuating.

In terms of the latest market, in northern ports, the newly added inquiry goods are less, and the demand side is under pricing, while the supplier is in conflict with the lower counter-offer price, the supply and demand mentality is different, and the market coal transaction activity is low. At present, the mainstream price of cv5500 movable coal is about 575 yuan, and the mainstream price of cv5000 movable coal is about 500-505 yuan. In terms of imported coal, the price of imported coal is still rising, but some market participants think that the increase in the later period is limited. At present, the price of cv5500 is fob53-54 USD. On October 22, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 574 CNY/ton, 1 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous period, 13 CNY/ton or 2.2% lower than the price in the same period in the previous month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 503 CNY/ton, 1 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous period, 15 CNY/ton or 2.9% lower than the price in the same period in the previous month. As for the downstream, as of October 23, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.058 million tons, with a decrease of 13000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, with a year-on-year increase of 285000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 607000 tons, with a increase of 8000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, with a year-on-year increase of 95000 tons; the available days were 264 days, with a decrease of 0.4 days, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4 days. From the perspective of producing area, the coal price of the main producing area is generally weak.

In Shenfu area, Yulin, Shaanxi Province, coal prices continued to decline steadily, coal hauling trucks decreased, and environmental protection restrictions do not allow off-site storage, there are more tube warehouses, some coal prices fell by 10-20 yuan. At present, chemical enterprises in Ordos area, Inner Mongolia basically purchase on demand. In addition to the long-term supply cooperation, most platform traders temporarily stop shipping due to the reverse hanging, the overall sales of the coal mine is general, and the inventory is under pressure. In the later stage, it is expected that the heating demand in the north will increase, with strong wait-and-see mood. Due to the influence of weather "orange early warning", the local coal hauling vehicles are limited. In addition, the port coal price continues to decline, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders for purchasing is not high, which leads to a large pressure on coal mine delivery, a continuous increase in inventory, and a small drop of 10 CNY/ton in coal price.