How much more can port coal prices rise under weak demand?

Since the end of March, the port power coal market has been in a glued state. The supply of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal resources has decreased sharply. Catalyzed by the periodic purchasing demand of downstream cement and chemical industries, the rising market of "delaying and surviving" type has been staged. On the contrary, the low-and medium-calorie coal market has been neglected, resulting in the continued expansion of the price gap between the two, breaking through the 100 yuan barrier! After entering April, the price of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal continued to rise, driving the price of medium and low-calorie coal to stop falling and rise again! As of yesterday, the price difference between high-calorie and medium-low-calorie coal is still 95-100 CNY/ton. Under the current weak demand of the port, the price of medium-low-calorie coal is weak. The advantage of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal is weakening gradually. How much more can the price of coal in the port rise? After the heating season ended in March, the off-season effect of downstream coal gradually appeared. However, the price of port coal can continue to rise and the price difference between high and low calorie coal is so large that people can not help wondering: behind this abnormal price difference, the demand of downstream coal is so strong?

Today's think tank, after a survey, believes that the rise of port coal price is not due to the "shortage of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal supply" effect, but rather to the rise of port coal price is to cover up the shortage of downstream demand under the guise of "shortage of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal supply". Fundamentally speaking, "the shortage of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal supply" is a false proposition! Because the shortage of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal supply has not caused the downstream crazy rush for goods, nor has it caused the price of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal to soar! If the downstream demand really exists, the price difference between high and low cargo coal in the port will not be so big!

In view of the recent demand for coal used by major coastal power plants, the purchase of Changxie coal is mostly based on Changxie coal, and the purchase volume of coal in the market is very small. According to today's think tank, some coastal power plants in the South have completed the bidding and purchasing plan for Indonesian coal in May, and under the long-term implementation of the "high inventory strategy", the willingness of the power plants to send ships north to pull coal is even weaker, which is one of them.

Secondly, from the point of view of the current inventory structure of power plants, most of them are medium and low calorie coal. According to this, some people worry that the power plants lack high calorie coal for blended combustion, and the units will not be able to operate normally! Today's think tank has already made a detailed investigation on this situation in previous articles, and pointed out that most power plants in the southern region have been upgraded and transformed, the combustion capacity of low calorific value coal has been greatly enhanced, but the demand intensity of high calorific coal has been further reduced, so there is no "shortage of high calorific and low sulfur coal supply" for power plants in the southern coast. A fact!

Thirdly, just as today's think tank in the previous astronomical chapter "Import Coal Price Collapse, South China CIF price is less than 500 CNY/ton!". According to the article, the CIF price of 5500 Kcal power coal in South China has fallen below 500 CNY/ton, which is nearly 170 CNY/ton cheaper than the CIF price of 5500 Kcal coal in South China. This is enough to show that, with the supplement of imported coal, the demand for domestic high-calorie coal in coastal power plants is absolutely not scarce!

It is not difficult to imagine that the port market only relies on the downstream cement and chemical industry to support the stage demand of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal to drive the whole market up, which is totally inconsistent with the market logic and very unrealistic. After all, the willingness to raise prices driven by emotions can not replace the driving force of market demand. It will inevitably lead to self-defeating overdraft market expectations and bring greater losses to all participants in the market! It is not a win-win choice to follow the market law, grasp the real opportunity of the market, run without holding coal prices, and not be confined to the rise and fall of coal prices.