In 2020, the coal market may enter the window period of reshaping and adjusting

The pressure of oversupply will continue to increase the coal transportation pattern and competition pattern, which will continue to adjust and optimize the coal industry to accelerate the transformation from "factor driven" to "innovation driven". Under the influence of many factors such as uncertain economic situation, excess supply, unabated import scale and sluggish downstream demand, the author predicts that next year's coal industry will present four major characteristics of "limited increment, price pressure, structural adjustment and innovation driven". It is predicted that coal price will enter a declining cycle, and market supply pattern, consumption pattern, transportation pattern and competition pattern will take place significantly With changes, the market will enter a window period of restructuring and adjustment for about one year. Coal enterprises with product quality advantages, price advantages and location advantages will usher in new opportunities for development under the market restructuring. First, the growth space of coal consumption is limited.

The macro-economic slowdown in 2020 is almost certain. In addition, in the shift of domestic economic growth and industrial optimization, the growth rate of energy demand and the intensity of energy consumption will further decline, and the total demand of next year will hardly increase. In addition, the impact of alternative energy sources such as water, wind, light and nuclear power on thermal power generation is increasing, the average utilization hours of thermal power generation equipment is declining, the problem of unstable demand for electric coal is prominent, and the total demand will decline in the future; the demand for coal in the chemical industry, building materials and metallurgical industry is subject to the impact of policy regulation, environmental protection constraints, contraction of infrastructure investment and peak load regulation and shutdown, etc It is not optimistic, but it will maintain a relatively stable development in the short and medium term, and non electric coal is expected to have some incremental space. Second, the pressure of oversupply is increasing. Since 2018, the pressure of domestic coal oversupply has been there.

In 2019, due to many production stops and production restrictions in the production area, the oversupply eased in stages, but the consumption in summer was lower than expected, which still caused the current high social inventory. It is estimated that in 2020, the import and export volume of domestic coal production will be about 4.05 billion tons, and the supply surplus will be about 150 million tons, which will accelerate the transition from the coal market to the buyer's market. In addition, the linkage mechanism of coal and electricity prices will be cancelled from next year, so thermal power enterprises have a strong demand for lowering the price of coal. It is expected that coal prices will face greater pressure of adjustment after entering the off-season next year. Third, the coal transportation pattern and competition pattern will continue to be adjusted and optimized. Since the implementation of the "public to rail" and freight increment actions, the trans regional and long-distance supply guarantee capacity of the core production areas has been strengthened, and the large transportation network of "west to east coal transportation, north to South coal transportation, public rail transportation and rail water transportation" has been continuously improved.

At the same time, it also forces coal enterprises to improve the capacity of the storage and transportation system in the mining area, and further change to the railway leading coal supply chain. After the operation of Haoji railway, it will greatly improve the transportation capacity of coal from the south to the outside. In addition to ensuring the stable supply of coal in Central China, it can also form a benign competition with the coal from the sea into the river, which will affect the southwest and East China regions. A large number of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi coal directly compete with "Haijin River" coal through the south of Haoji railway, or lead to the regional market discourse power incline to users. Affected by the increase of transfer out volume, it is expected that the coal price in Northern Shaanxi will remain relatively strong, and the price of production area and consumption area may become normal. Fourth, the coal industry should accelerate the transformation from "factor driven" to "innovation driven". In terms of production links, after the supply side structural reform in recent years, China has completed the target of "13th five year plan" capacity reduction ahead of schedule, accelerated the release of advanced capacity and concentrated it in the "three West" region, large coal enterprises have the ability and power to comprehensively promote the construction of digital and intelligent mines, and high-quality coal supply will enter a new development stage. From the perspective of circulation, it is the general trend to accelerate the innovation and integration of coal marketing and information technology. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the accelerated breakthrough and application of the new generation of information technology represented by artificial intelligence, Internet of things, 5g communication, big data and blockchain, coal circulation enterprises will be given the ability to control and use data and information resources faster, better and more comprehensively in the next few years It will be a critical period for coal circulation enterprises to seize the opportunity of the Internet and constantly give birth to new forms and modes of coal supply chain.