In winter, coal price of the port is rising steadily

In the second half of the year, affected by a large number of imported coal customs clearance, impact on the domestic market and other factors, both the Datong Qinhuangdao line transportation and the coal transportation in the port around the Bohai Sea decreased year-on-year; as a result, the coal transportation in the port around the Bohai Sea decreased year-on-year from January to mid November. In the last more than one month of this year, the external environment of the coal market will improve, the domestic coal purchase will increase significantly, the coal trade will tend to be active, and the port coal price will rise steadily. At present, it has entered the low water period, and the hydropower output has decreased significantly; from the hydropower operation in October, the hydropower output has decreased by 4.1% year-on-year; in November and December, the rainfall has decreased, the hydropower operation has weakened, the pressure of thermal power in coastal areas has increased, and the coal consumption of power plants will be increased. At present, the market shows signs of turning better, and the price of coal in the main production area is stable and rising. The coal sales in Yushen area of Shaanxi Province improved slightly. Affected by safety and environmental protection inspection and other factors, the inventory of coal mines and coal plants was low, and the coal price was stable and medium to high. At the end of the year, the coal mines in Ordos area of Inner Mongolia kept safety one after another, and the output was further tightened; with the support of heating in winter, the coal price stabilized. All major coal transportation railways and ports shall make every effort to organize loading and unloading, increase effective inventory, improve coal transportation efficiency and meet downstream coal demand.

In the later stage, the production and supply of coal from the origin will be affected to some extent by the further cooling of temperature and the impact of snowfall. The upstream inventory is relatively low. In addition, due to the lack of flexibility of railway transportation, the inventory of ports around Bohai Sea may fall back, and the coastal coal market will shift from the previous stage of supply exceeding demand to the direction of supply-demand balance. With the advent of cold air, the civil power load in East China will increase, which will drive the coal consumption of power plants to increase to a certain extent, and the demand for electric coal will recover; in addition, with the overall upgrading of import coal restrictions, the domestic coal market will be significantly better than the previous period. In recent months, China's monthly coal import volume is between 25-33 million tons, and the cumulative import volume in the first ten months is basically the same as that of last year. Finally, in the middle of November this year, the General Administration of Customs introduced strict control measures, and the impact of imported coal on the domestic market will be weakened in the next more than a month. Although this winter, the upstream, midstream and downstream inventories will continue to be at a high level, if the import coal policy is tightened in an all-round way, in the "peak winter" season, the coal market is likely to tighten, and the coal market may usher in a wave of rebound. In winter, the pressure of thermal power increases. In December, the number of cold winters in the North increased the coal consumption. With the advent of cold air, the demand for coal in East China and central China increased. Not only the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants will increase, but also the number of ships entering the river by sea will increase, and the north coal South transportation will be more busy. Although the phenomenon of high inventory of power plants still exists, once the daily consumption increases sharply, the number of days available for coal storage will drop significantly; in addition, the role of imported coal supplement will be weakened, and the favorable factors will be superimposed, which will promote the corresponding increase of domestic coal demand, and the fundamentals of market demand will be improved.