Coal downstream demand increase limited spot price rise weak

With the increase of civil power load, the increasingly prominent effect of import coal quota control, and the increase of the predictability of subsequent pallets, it is expected that the coastal coal market will improve in winter. However, due to the high inventory of the downstream power plants and the unobvious temperature drop, there are not many favorable factors; before the end of the year, the coal market is unlikely to improve in an all-round way, and the port coal price increase is limited. In the near future, there are frequent safety accidents and upgrading restrictions on imported coal; in addition, the winter heating demand peak season is imminent, so the market has strong psychological support. However, the factors affecting the rise of coal price still exist; the supply in the main production area is stable, and after the coal mine accident, the purchase demand of some users increases, which makes the situation of coal mine shipment better; however, from the overall demand situation, the terminal demand is not released obviously, the sales situation of major coal mines is general, there is still a certain inventory pressure, and the overall inventory of the production area is in the middle level. In terms of railway, the Daqin, Shuohuang and Mengji lines have made full efforts to sprint to the annual goal, the number of coal trucks entering the port has not decreased, and the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea has declined slightly; however, due to the general impact of the sealing and shipping conditions, the decline of coal storage in ports is not obvious.

Up to now, the ten coal ports around the Bohai Sea have a total coal storage of 25.4 million tons, down 1.98 million tons from the beginning of November. In addition, the inventory of downstream power plants is still high. In the context of power market, the customers are mainly hauling long-term coal, the purchase of power plants is more cautious, and the transportation of coal is relatively loose. In the near future, the production restriction of safety supervision has curbed the illegal overproduction of some coal mines, at the same time, it has also eased the surplus situation of local production areas, and curbed the downward pressure of prices. However, at present, the inventory of key power plants in the downstream is still at a historical high level. Even if the daily consumption of coastal power plants continues to increase next week, the available days of coal storage will remain at a high level of about 20 days. Except for power on and other power plants with small storage yard capacity, which will increase the ship's transport capacity to pull coal, most of the rest of the power plants will not be very motivated. Although the cooling and snowfall have boosted the consumption of electricity and coal, and the daily consumption of six coastal power plants has risen to 700000 tons, it is difficult to change the fatigue situation of the market under the condition of high inventory in each link, which has limited effect on boosting the coal market. In addition, in January next year, China's imported coal will continue to be liberalized, and a large number of foreign coal waiting for customs clearance and port entry will flow in, and the domestic power plant inventory will be replenished soon; in addition, the Spring Festival is earlier than that of previous years, and in the middle of January next year, with the production and holiday of industrial enterprises, the coal market will weaken. It is expected that this winter, the purchase volume of coastal power plants will not increase significantly, the increase of coal pulling ships to the northern port is limited, and the rise of coal price is weak.