Consumption growth rate stands at 8% again

On December 16, the new office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in November 2019. This is also the last monthly economic data press conference held in the year. At the press conference, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, brought a "report card" that exceeded the market expectation. In November, the actual growth rate of industrial added value above Designated Size in China reached 6.2% year on year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8.0%. These two important indicators reflect the economic operation, both of which set a new high since the second half of this year. Fu Linghui summarized that a series of policy effects have been released continuously, positive changes have taken place in economic operation, the main economic indicators are better than expected, and the overall stable and steady economic operation trend is further revealed. In general, the economic data in November shows the characteristics of "two acceleration", "two stability" and "two improvement": two acceleration refers to the acceleration of growth of industry and service industry; two stability refers to the stability of employment situation and foreign trade growth; two improvement refers to the continuous improvement of economic structure and market expectation.

Consumption growth stood at 8% again on November 11 this year, and the "double 11" online shopping festival, a grand event in the domestic consumer market, was staged again as scheduled. Whether this large-scale activity can play a greater role in promoting the retail market of consumer goods in November has become a topic of general concern to the market. According to data released on December 16, China's consumer market did hand over a rather amazing "report card" in November. In the same month, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 3809.4 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 8.0% year on year. The reporter of the daily economic news noted that this is also the first time in five months that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in a single month stands at 8%. Is there any connection between the stronger consumption data and the "double 11"? At the press conference on December 16, Fu Linghui gave a positive answer to the questions of the on-site reporters. "The pull of the" double 11 "Shopping Festival on online retail is very obvious," he said He explained specifically that in November, the growth of retail sales of online physical goods accelerated significantly, which played a greater role in stimulating the total retail sales of social consumer goods in that month. Zhang Deli, chief macro researcher of YueKai securities, analyzed the daily economic news. According to the data in November, the growth rate of cosmetics in retail sales of units above Designated Size rose to 16.8% from 6.2% in October, the growth rate of household appliances and audio-visual equipment rose to 9.7% from 0.7%, and the growth rate of clothing, shoes, hats, pins and textiles rose to 4.6% from 0.8%. The promotion of these consumer categories in "double 11" is strong, and the growth rate from September to November shows a "V" type feature, so it can be considered that the strengthening of consumption data in that month is mainly affected by "double 11".

It is worth noting that the total retail sales of social consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 9.1% in November, which is significantly higher than the overall consumption growth in November, showing that the current weak automobile sales still have a certain drag on the overall consumer market. In this regard, Zhang Deli believes that the expansion of automobile consumption in 2020 may become the focus of the policy, and the subsequent policies may be partially adjusted in terms of automobile purchase restriction, automobile scrapping subsidies, taxes and automobile finance. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was 50.2% in November, the first time in seven months it has returned to the top of the 50% boom and bust line. The data of added value of industries above Designated Size just released in November once again confirmed the obvious recovery and improvement of China's manufacturing industry. Specifically, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year in November, 1.5 percentage points higher than that in October. Comparing the data of each month of this year, it can be found that this growth rate is the highest since the second half of this year, and the third highest growth rate of industrial added value in this year. For the obvious rebound of manufacturing industry, Li Chao, chief Macro Analyst of Huatai Securities (19.130, 0.00, 0.00%) analyzed to the reporter of daily economic news that the current economic policy still focuses on stable growth.

We believe that some industrial raw materials and equipment may start to increase production in the fourth quarter of this year, which has formed a certain pull on industrial production. According to a specific analysis of cement output data, an important industrial product, Zhang Deli said that the cement output in November was close to 225 million tons, the second highest in the year, only lower than 227 million tons in May. He said that this phenomenon means that countercyclical regulation and control continue to work, real estate investment remains relatively resilient, infrastructure investment has improved, which has driven the demand and production of cement, and also shows that the terminal demand is better than the expectation of the mainstream market. It is worth noting that from the industrial data in November, the long-term contraction of car production has rebounded significantly, which is also an important driving force for the data to strengthen. Yang Chang, head of policy group (chief analyst) of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, analyzed the reporter of daily economic news that the automobile output in November increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 5.8 percentage points compared with last month, which is the first time that the monthly growth rate returns to the positive growth range after experiencing a year and a half consecutive year-on-year decline since July 2018. The reporter noted that from the sub item data, the stronger production of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) played a significant supporting role in automobile production performance in November. According to the data, the output of SUV increased by 14.6% year-on-year, while the output of sedan decreased by 3.4%.

In response to whether the economic growth rate "guaranteed 6" and all economic data in November performed better than expected, does it mean that the pressure on GDP growth rate "guaranteed 6" in the fourth quarter of this year has been significantly eased? In the press conference on December 16, Fu Linghui replied: "since this year, China's economic growth has been generally stable, steady and progressive, with GDP growth of 6.2% in the first three quarters, from the fourth quarter In view of the situation, some positive changes have taken place in the main indicators in November, and we believe that there should be foundation and conditions for achieving the expected annual growth target. " However, Fu Linghui also pointed out that it is really necessary to see that the current international environment is still relatively complex, and there is still downward pressure in the economic operation. In the next stage, we should, in accordance with the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, further focus on the "six stability" work, promote innovation driven development, and promote sustained, healthy and stable economic development. Fu Linghui also gave a clear response at the press conference to the topic of whether China's GDP growth target in 2020 will continue to be "guaranteed by 6", which has been hotly discussed in recent academic circles. He said that great changes have taken place in China's economic development stage, which has changed from the growth characterized by high input and high consumption to the development characterized by improving quality and efficiency, which means that our economic growth will not be as high as in the past. Fu Linghui stressed: "if employment is relatively sufficient, prices remain stable, residents' incomes continue to increase, the ecological environment is improving, the quality and efficiency of development are improving, and the economic growth rate is a little higher or lower. As long as it meets the requirements of the development stage, I think it is acceptable."