Coal based pattern determines the primary task of energy transformation

By 2030, China's energy consumption is still dominated by coal, so blind "coal removal" is not desirable. Clean energy is the coal that can achieve clean and efficient utilization. At present, the revolution in the field of coal lies in promoting the clean, efficient and sustainable development and utilization of coal in the whole industry and the whole industrial chain. Energy saving and efficiency improvement can significantly reduce the consumption of coal, which is the most practical way to reduce carbon emission in China. At present, China's energy is facing severe challenges. One is the challenge of cleanliness, and the road is still long. The air pollution caused by the backward utilization of fossil energy has become a problem that can not be ignored. Although the air treatment in some cities in China has achieved remarkable results, there is still a big gap between the air quality and developed countries.

The second is low-carbon challenge, and the pressure is still huge. China is the largest energy producer and consumer in the world. The energy structure is mainly fossil energy, and the carbon emissions are the most. In 2018, 85.7% of the primary energy structure is fossil energy, which is composed of coal, oil and natural gas. Despite years of efforts, the proportion of coal in the energy structure fell to 59% in 2018, but it is still the main energy. Therefore, clean, efficient and sustainable utilization of coal must be an important content, and also the most realistic way to achieve low-carbon utilization. The third is the security challenge, and the situation is still severe. Since 2000, China's dependence on oil and gas has been increasing. In 2018, the dependence on oil and natural gas reached 70.8% and 43.2% respectively. The change of geopolitics and energy supply pattern may bring long-term pressure on China's oil and gas energy supply. The fourth is the challenge of efficiency, and the gap is still obvious. Although China's energy intensity has declined significantly, it is still 1.5 times of the world average. In 2018, China's GDP accounts for 16.1% of the world's total, and the total energy consumption accounts for 22.6% of the world's total, which is about twice that of developed countries, indicating that we still have a lot of room for progress. On the one hand, the challenge of efficiency is that the consumption of renewable energy has become a prominent problem in China's energy transformation.

The direct result of low efficiency of renewable energy utilization in China is that water, wind and light are abandoned seriously. In 2017 alone, China lost 100.7 billion kwh of electricity due to water, wind and light abandonment, which is more than that of the Three Gorges power station in one year. On the other hand, it will take time for new energy technology to reach the industrial scale. It is generally believed that new energy accounts for more than 1% of the consumption structure, and the development cycle is about 25 years. The energy revolution is imperative in China. In May 2013, the Chinese Academy of Engineering organized more than 30 academicians and more than 500 experts to carry out strategic research on the energy production and consumption revolution. So far, three phases of research have been completed. The first phase includes the direction of energy revolution, the measures of energy revolution and the stage of energy revolution. According to the study, the energy revolution can be divided into three stages: before 2020, the period of optimizing the energy structure is mainly to promote the clean, efficient and sustainable development and utilization of coal, eliminate backward production capacity, improve the concentration and cleanliness of coal utilization, increase the development and utilization of non fossil energy, and realize the clean and low-carbon development of energy consumption. By 2020, the consumption ratio of coal, oil and gas, and non fossil energy will be increased.

For example, the total energy consumption is about 5 billion tons of standard coal; 2020-2030 is the period of transformation in the energy field, mainly the clean energy, especially the renewable energy alternative coal strategy, so as to achieve significant changes in the energy consumption structure. By 2030, the proportion of coal, oil and gas, non fossil energy consumption is 5:3:2, and the total energy consumption is within 6 billion tons of standard coal; 2030-2050 is energy During the initial revolution, a new energy system was formed. By 2050, the proportion of coal, oil and gas, and non fossil energy consumption was 4:3:3, and the total energy consumption was about 5.7 billion tons of standard coal. The second phase focuses on the rural energy revolution and the implementation of the western energy channel. Based on the regional development strategy proposed by China, we believe that the energy revolution should be organically integrated with regional economy and society with different development characteristics. This requires the energy revolution to actively promote economic and social development and the protection of ecological civilization. For this reason, our research perspective has also changed fundamentally. The third phase focuses on how the energy revolution can promote the development of regional economy and society and the protection of ecological environment.

The goal of our energy revolution is to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. To achieve this goal, we should take the following measures: first, we should give priority to energy conservation and efficiency improvement; second, we should coordinate and optimize the source network load storage of electric power; third, we should strictly control the consumption of coal and oil to achieve clean transformation; fourth, we should break through the bottleneck and accelerate the promotion of the proportion of non fossil energy; fifth, we should carry out the innovation and revolution of energy technology to lead the practice of the whole energy revolution; sixth, energy and Deep integration of information technology, seizing the opportunity of rapid development of Internet, big data and artificial intelligence. According to the prediction, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of fossil energy in the primary energy structure of the world and China will be about 80%, and the proportion of coal in the primary energy structure of China will be about 55%. In recent years, everyone has been talking about energy transformation. In combination with China's national conditions and energy conditions, the country has made it clear that promoting clean and efficient development and utilization of coal is the foothold and primary task of energy transformation and development.