Analysis and Prospect of economic operation of coal industry

With regard to the current situation of the economic operation of the coal industry in China, it can be summed up in four sentences: first, the external environment has changed rapidly; second, the industry has made great progress in its own development; third, it faces many difficulties and challenges; fourth, the development space and Prospects are still broad. The whole industry should have firm confidence, never forget its original intention, deepen reform and step to a new stage of high-quality development. Six major changes have taken place in the external environment. China's macro-economy has changed from a long-term and high-speed development to a medium and high-speed development. The growth rate of coal consumption has declined significantly. China's pace of economic restructuring has been accelerated. In particular, the proportion of the second industry has continued to decline. China's energy structure has been optimized. The role of substitution has enhanced the growth rate of the main coal consuming industries' output of electricity, metallurgy, building materials, civil and other products, which has fallen back to the national coal transfer energy The external environment change of coal industry development is mainly reflected in the following six aspects.

First, China's macro-economy has changed from a long-term and high-speed development to a medium and high-speed development. The growth rate of energy consumption has slowed down, and the growth rate of coal consumption has declined significantly. From 1949 to 1978, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 7.35%; from 1979 to 1993, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 17.5%; from 1994 to 2003, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 12.2%; from 2004 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 15.7%; from 2014 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 7.3%. Since the reform and opening up, the average annual growth rate of China's GDP has increased from 17.5% to 12.2%, and then from 15.7% to 7.3% in recent years. In the first quarter, the second quarter and the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of GDP is 6.4%, 6.2% and 6%, respectively. The trend of economic growth slowing down and shifting is obvious. The slowdown of economic growth directly affects the intensity and structure of energy consumption. In the first three quarters of this year, in China's energy consumption structure, the proportion of clean energy increased by 1.2 percentage points, and the proportion of coal decreased by 1.7 percentage points. Second, the pace of China's economic restructuring has accelerated, especially the proportion of the secondary industry has continued to fall. From 1978 to the first three quarters of 2019, the proportion of the primary industry decreased from 27.7% to 6.2%, down 21.5%; the proportion of the secondary industry decreased from 47.7% to 39.8%, down 7.9%; the proportion of the tertiary industry increased from 24.6% to 54%, up 29.4%. The change of industrial structure drives the change of investment form of the whole society.

The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society decreased from 23.8% in 2010 to 5.4% in the first three quarters of this year, and the growth rate of real estate investment decreased from 33.2% to 10.5%. The driving force of energy demand is obviously weakened. Third, China's energy structure has been adjusted and optimized, and the role of substitution has been enhanced. In China's energy consumption structure, the proportion of coal gradually dropped from 72.4% in 2005 to 59% in 2018, down 13.4 percentage points; the proportion of oil increased from 17.8% to 18.9%; the proportion of natural gas increased from 2.4% to 7.8%; the proportion of renewable energy increased from 7.4% to 14.4%, up 7 percentage points. Based on the total energy consumption of 4.64 billion tons of standard coal in 2018, the optimization of energy structure is equivalent to the replacement and reduction of 460 million tons of coal consumption. Fourth, the growth rate of output of power, metallurgy, building materials, civil and other products in the major coal consuming industries fell. The growth rate of national thermal power generation decreased from 11.07% in 2002-2013 to 3.37% in 2014-2018, down 7.7 percentage points; during the same period, the annual growth rate of crude steel production decreased from 14.13% to 3.05%, down 11.08 percentage points; the annual growth rate of cement production decreased from 11.63% to 3.17%, down 14.8 percentage points.

The growth rate of product output in thermal power, metallurgy and building materials industries fell sharply, which led to a significant reduction in coal consumption demand. Preliminary analysis shows that in the first 10 months of this year, China's coal consumption was 3.25 billion tons, up 0.8% year on year; coal output was 3.06 billion tons, up 127 million tons, up 4.5% year on year; net coal import was 271 million tons, up 23.58 million tons, up 9.6% year on year. The coal stock of the whole society is at a historical high. The total supply of coal is loose. Fifth, China's coal transportation capacity has been greatly improved. In recent years, on the basis of the stable increase of coal railway transportation network capacity in Daqin, Huanghua, Jitong, Zhangtang, etc., the transportation capacity of Wari railway has increased, the Haoji railway has been put into operation, and the bottleneck of coal railway transportation has been greatly alleviated. The handling capacity of coal ports along the coast and river has been improved. China has completed 21 UHV transmission projects of "8-ac-13-dc" and approved the "4-ac-2-dc" UHV transmission project under construction. The national coal transportation and consumption pattern is undergoing great changes. Sixthly, the total consumption and intensity of coal are under double control, and many factors such as mining area ecological environment control, air pollution control and imported coal are intertwined, forming the double pressure of rigid increase of coal manufacturing cost and market price competition. At present, there is still a price difference of 70 CNY/ton to 80 CNY/ton between the import coal price of the main ports in the southeast coast and the CIF price of the ports in the north of China from launching to the ports in the southeast coast.

Great progress has been made in reform, innovation and development. The development concept of the coal industry has been changed. The industrial structure of the coal industry has been adjusted and optimized. The driving force of the fast technological innovation has been enhanced. The level of clean and efficient utilization of coal has been improved. The investment in mining area ecological environmental protection has been increased to increase the industrial efficiency. The reform, innovation and development progress of the coal industry itself have been improved in the following aspects. First, the development concept of coal industry has changed rapidly. Summing up the experiences and lessons of many years' market competition and the ups and downs of the coal economy, the development concept of the coal industry began to change from "price compensation by quantity, disordered competition" to "cooperation, coordination and win-win", the development mode began to change from the extensive type of scale and speed to the intensive type of quality and benefit, the development power began to change from the factor input driven type to the innovation driven type of scientific and technological progress, and the development mode was opened It began to change from one coal monopoly to industrial chain extension, value chain extension and new industry mode innovation and development.

Second, the adjustment and optimization of coal industrial structure is fast. Through deepening the structural reform of coal supply side, the number of coal mines in China has been greatly reduced, and large-scale modern coal mines have become the main body of coal production in China. The number of coal mines in China has decreased from more than 12000 at the end of 2015 to less than 6000 at present. The output of large-scale coal mines with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and above accounts for about 80% of the country. Up to now, 48 large-scale coal mines with a capacity of 770 million tons / year have been built nationwide; 23 large-scale coal mines with a capacity of 300 million tons / year are under construction; after all, 71 large-scale coal mines with a capacity of 10 million tons and a capacity of 1.07 billion tons / year will be built nationwide. Through many years of exploration, the industrial structure of coal enterprises is constantly optimized, and new industries, new formats and new models are constantly innovated and developed. Coal power, coal coking, modern coal chemical industry, classification and quality utilization of low-grade coal and other industrial chain extension and development, research and development of new products such as graphene, silane gas, fine chemical industry, development of new industries such as health care, production and marketing cooperation, new energy, etc., coal enterprises have formed a unique transformation and development mode.

Third, the driving force of scientific and technological innovation has been enhanced. The fine exploration technology of coal geology provides the foundation for the construction of large-scale modern coal mines; the large-scale, automatic and intelligent equipment manufacturing technology provides the support for the construction of intelligent coal mines; the basic theory and key technology of safe mining of coal mines continue to break through, and the overall level of coal productivity has been greatly improved. Fourth, the level of clean and efficient utilization of coal has been improved. More than 800 million kilowatts of ultra-low emission and energy-saving technological transformation of coal-fired power plants have been completed in China. The technology of coal-fired industrial boilers has been popularized and applied, making the vast majority of power generation and bulk coal consumption in China realize clean and efficient utilization. With the development of modern coal chemical technology and industrialization, coal has realized the transformation from fuel to raw material, and the direction, way and scope of coal utilization have been further expanded. In particular, Wang Shuangming, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, organized and carried out a survey of rich oil and coal resources in China. The results show that the reserves of rich oil and coal resources in Northern Shaanxi are 150 billion tons, with an average oil content of 10%. The oil that can be extracted through the technology of classification and quality utilization of coal is equivalent to finding an oil field with a reserves of 15 billion tons.

At present, the proven crude oil reserves in China are 3.5 billion tons, and a large amount of capital investment is needed to maintain the annual crude oil output at about 200 million tons. From the perspective of national energy security strategy, classified and qualitative utilization of coal has important strategic significance and great development space. Fifthly, the management of mining subsidence area, the investment of ecological environment protection in mining area are increased, the ecological function of mining area is enhanced, and the traditional mining area is gradually turning into an ecological livable city. Sixth, the benefits of the coal industry rebounded and the business operation improved. In the first 10 months of this year, the total profit of Coal Enterprises above Designated Size reached 241.85 billion yuan, down 2.1% year on year. The spot price of 5500 kcal power coal in Qinhuangdao fell from over 600 CNY/ton to 552 CNY/ton, and the long-term contract price has been stable at 550 CNY/ton to 570 CNY/ton. The medium and long-term contract system and the pricing mechanism of "base price + floating price" play the role of ballast and stabilizer to maintain the smooth operation of the industry. In addition, the coal mine safety production situation is stable and improved. In 2018, the death rate of one million tons of coal mines in China fell below 0.1 for the first time.

The development faces old problems and new challenges. The development of the industry is unbalanced. The concentration of the industry is low. The supply and demand balance of the market is still fragile. The marketization reform of the upstream and downstream industries is not synchronized. The ability of the coal industry to guide the market expectation and respond to the changes in supply and demand is insufficient. The tax burden of the enterprises with high-end and "knowledge + skill" talent shortage is heavy. The transformation and upgrading path and mode are not clear In the future, China's macro-economy is in the transition period from high-speed development to high-quality development. The external environment may be more complex, with more uncertainties and challenges The key period of transforming development mode, optimizing economic structure and transforming growth power. The development of China's energy industry is in the period of carrying out the new strategic thought of "four revolutions and one cooperation" in energy security. It is also an important period of transformation from the traditional energy resources development to the rigid restriction of ecological environment and the clean and efficient utilization of energy. China's coal industry is in a critical period of deepening supply side structural reform and promoting demand side reform, and in a period of transition to new models, new formats, new industries and new product innovation and development. The development of science and technology in China is in a period of innovation and development with the fourth industrial revolution as the guide, big data, intelligence, green and information as the development direction, 5g and blockchain technology as the focus, accelerating the rapid development.

With the new concept of "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains", China's ecological environment protection is changing the traditional development mode of resource development, economic development and environmental governance, promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, which will have a more profound impact on the development and utilization mode of eight large-scale coal bases in the Yellow River Basin. Coal, as the main energy source in China, is facing severe challenges in the great changes that haven't happened in a century. First, the unbalanced development of the industry itself is prominent. Due to the great differences in the existing conditions of coal resources in China and the different development times of new and old mining areas, there are great differences in the profit level, development potential, staff income, industrial layout, etc. among enterprises. From the perspective of profit distribution, the profits of the top 10 coal enterprises account for about 45% of the total profits of the whole industry, accounting for more than 80% of the total profits of large coal enterprises (raw coal output accounts for 70% of the national total). Most enterprises have low profit level, and some are still on the edge of low profit and loss. The two is industry.