Stage positive factors: stable and rising coal price in fermentation area

In recent years, the positive factors in the production area have been accumulating, which makes the situation of supply exceeding demand gradually relieved. At present, the favorable factors are slightly dominant, and the coal price is stable, medium and small. According to the latest price released by Inner Mongolia coal trading center, the price of three main specifications of pithead in the current period "rose two times", among which the price of 5500 kcal coal powder rose for the first time since October. One of the main factors that support the price of the place of origin is the rigid replenishment of stock before the Spring Festival, which drives the demand. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, all major traders and chemical plants have the demand of "stock up" for the Spring Festival. In response to uncertainties such as snowfall and coal mine holiday expectation, traders in large-scale logistics parks have increased procurement in the near future. The centralized release of the demand of the production area has promoted the increase of the sales volume of coal powder. According to the data of Inner Mongolia coal trading center, since the end of December, the daily average sales volume of powder coal in Ordos local coal mines has reached 710000 tons, an increase of 210000 tons or 42% compared with 500000 tons in the middle of the year, and 150000 tons or 26.7% compared with 560000 tons in November. 

The purchase price of large enterprises has been raised one after another. With the centralized release of the purchase of major traders, the sales volume of coal mines has increased, and the ability of coal prices has become stronger, and the bargaining power of large enterprises has been weakened, so the purchase price has to be increased. According to the data, in the past two weeks, large-scale purchasing enterprises in the production area have been actively storing coal, and the purchase price of car board has been continuously increased. The purchase price of 5500 car board has increased from 319 CNY/ton in early December to 340 CNY/ton in recent days, up 21 yuan. The increase of purchase price of large-scale enterprises has a positive impact on the trade sentiment of the origin, and the price support of the origin has been strengthened. 

Due to the expectation of coal mine overhaul and holiday, the supply and demand situation has been in a phased balance since the end of December. With the completion of the annual task of the coal mine and the progress of the annual routine maintenance, and the superposition of most of the coal mines on New Year's day, the overall supply of the production area has been in a phased decline, which makes the supply and demand situation of the coal enter a weak balance, and the supply of some areas is in a tense situation.

In recent years, the positive sentiment of the continuous rise of port price has been transmitted to the origin, and the traders begin to have small purchase demand and the price reduction behavior is weakened. On the other hand, under the positive factors of port price rise, coal mines have strong willingness to support prices. The above-mentioned positive factors concentrated fermentation effectively supported the stable operation of the production area market in the near future, and some coal mines with low prices in the early stage rebounded. But on the whole, in January 2020, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the overall coal market has entered the situation of weak supply and demand, and the overall growth space of the production area is limited.