The International Urea Market Ushered in a Major Reversal, and the Price Jumped by 1370 Yuan / ton!

Urea prices reversed rapidly this week, causing many to lose positions as a series of shutdown announcements at European factories tightened the market. Anticipating huge demand in Europe, traders raced to source goods from most nearby origins, turning the market around in less than a day.

In a series of eye-catching transactions, the price of urea in the Middle East was finally $200/ton higher than the level a week ago, equivalent to RMB 200 = 1374 CNY/ton.

The FOB price of small particles in the Middle East is raised by $50.00-125.00/ton; the FOB price of large particles in the US Gulf is raised by $20.00-134.00/ton;

International mainstream regional urea export FOB price

The FOB price of bulk small particles in China is 485.01-520.01 US dollars / ton, and the high-end price is raised by 20.00 US dollars / ton;
The port FOB price of small particles in the Black Sea is 470.01-520.01 US dollars / ton, unchanged from last week;
Croatia/Romania small particle port FOB price of 750.01-770.01 US dollars / ton, up 100.00-110.00 US dollars / ton
The FOB price of small particles in the Baltic Sea port is 470.01-520.01 US dollars / ton, unchanged from last week;
The FOB price of small particles in the Middle East is 600.01-685.01 US dollars / ton, an increase of 50.00-125.00 US dollars / ton;
Brazil small particle CFR price 580.01-590.01 US dollars / ton, unchanged from last week;
Iranian large particle port offshore 500.01-510.01 US dollars / ton, high-end raised by 5.00 US dollars / ton;
The FOB price of large particles in Egypt (Europe) is 735.01-820.01 US dollars / ton, and the high-end price is raised by 55.00 US dollars / ton;
Brazil's large particle CFR price is 580.01-670.01 US dollars / ton, and the high-end price is raised by 65.00 US dollars / ton;
The CIF port price of small particles in Southeast Asia is 540.01-575.01 US dollars / ton, an increase of 10.00-35.00 US dollars / ton.
The FOB price of us large particles in the Middle East is 560.01-710.01 US dollars / ton, an increase of 20.00-132.00 US dollars / ton;
Middle East-non US Nteback large particle port FOB price of 620.01-750.01 US dollars / ton, up 70.00-194.00 US dollars / ton;
The FOB price of large particles in the US Gulf is 612.01-766.01 US dollars / ton, an increase of 20.00-134.00 US dollars / ton;
China's large particle port offshore 510.01-560.01, up 10.00-50.00 US dollars / ton.
The key driving factor for the counterattack of the international urea market price increase this week is still the "natural gas crisis" followed by political sanctions!

According to a report by RIA Novosti in Moscow on August 26, data from the Intercontinental Exchange in London showed that the price of natural gas in the European market has once again exceeded the $3,000 per thousand cubic meter mark since the beginning of March.

According to reports, the European natural gas market has been mired in huge volatility for more than a year. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russian gas exports have fallen sharply, supply through the Nord Stream gas pipeline and the Ukrainian gas transit system has plummeted, while the "Yamal-Europe" gas pipeline has been completely shut down. The superposition of the above-mentioned reasons has led to another rise in gas prices and set a historical record.

At present, Europe is still under pressure from the tightening of Russian gas exports. Protracted heat has added fuel to the fire, leading to a reduction in the generation of electricity from alternative energy sources. Most of Europe's 19 Mt/y ammonia capacity was forced to go offline, with a significant portion of this being taken offline this week as production (too costly) economics challenged and sparked massive urea import activity.

Political sanctions factor: Trade flows are still affected by sanctions. Europe gets only a small amount of supply from nearby Russia, and a lot from further afield at high prices.

Europe's massive fertilizer plants are at risk of further shutdowns if the natural gas market shows no signs of easing later, the researcher said. The market is in the early stages of a new rally.