High quality coal continues to be in short supply

At present, the coal transfer in the Bohai Sea port continues to maintain a low level, and high-quality coal remains in a tense state. By the end of 7 days, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao port had dropped to 3.9 million tons, a new low since February 2016; as the number of ships shipped was higher than that transferred in, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao port was likely to continue to decline. There are few spot goods in the port, and a few traders and cement plants trade with an index rising of 1-2 CNY/ton, driving the port coal price to continue to rise slightly. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued two documents to further speed up the resumption of coal mine production and ensure the stable supply of coal. However, in the absence of obvious control of the epidemic situation, the resumption of work in upstream production areas and the short-term automobile transportation have been greatly hindered, and the coal transportation railways are "hard to cook without rice".

In the past three days, the daily average traffic volume of Daqin line is only 700000 tons, while that of Zhangtang line is only 40000 tons; the railway transfer in volume continues to remain low, which makes it difficult for the number of port unloading to increase, and the storage capacity continues to remain low. On February 7, 1.31 million tons of coal was transferred into the ten ports around the Bohai Sea, a decrease of 30.6% compared with the normal situation; among them, 256000 tons of coal was transferred into Qinhuangdao port, equivalent to 48% of the normal situation. Up to now, Qinhuangdao port has 3.9 million tons of coal, the lowest level in four years; state investment Jingtang Port has decreased to 1.15 million tons of coal, a decrease of 360000 tons compared with the beginning of the month, and it is expected to soon drop to the level below 1 million tons. Affected by the epidemic, the north and South provinces are delaying the resumption of work. In terms of upstream main production areas, it is not easy for many coal mines that have been shut down since the Spring Festival to resume production according to the original planned time. Due to the limited personnel on duty, most of the coal mines in production are produced in a single shift, with limited output.

However, the road automobile transportation into the coal production area is also affected, resulting in difficulties in coal collection and distribution, shortage of coal sources, reduction of water resources flowing to the northern port, and Bohai port depots The overall situation of the deposit shows a downward trend. In the downstream, the daily consumption of power plants is low and the demand for coal is low. Due to the gradual rising trend of temperature in the south, it is difficult to support the civil power load; in addition, industrial enterprises resume work slowly, many provinces and cities postpone the resumption of construction projects such as real estate to late February or even March, which also results in insufficient construction of building materials, cement and other industries, and industrial power consumption is affected. It is expected that in the short term, coal demand in the South will continue to maintain a low and medium level operation. It is very difficult for the daily consumption of the power plant to return to the high level this month, and there are long-term cooperative and stable supply in the downstream, so it is difficult for large-scale centralized procurement in the short term. In addition, due to the blocked shipment, the port inventory around Bohai Sea continued to plummet, the market coal resources were limited, and the price of coal trading was low. However, due to the tight supply in the international market, Indonesia and Australia have taken measures to deal with the epidemic; in addition, due to the rainstorm in Indonesia, the shipment cycle has been extended, the arrival cycle of imported coal has been extended, and the downstream hopes of relying on imported coal to replenish the storage have been lost.