PVC stock inflection point has not yet appeared

According to the monitoring data, on March 27, 2020, the PVC price index was 5550, which was a low level on April 5, 2017, and the lowest point since April 5, 2017 was 5517 on April 27, 2017. The price is 0.6% higher than the lowest point. From the supply side, according to the commissioning situation before the second quarter of 2020, the year-on-year capacity increase is expected to be 3%, and due to a significant decrease in the operating rate in some months, the output growth is expected to be 2%.

From the demand side, after the Spring Festival, affected by social public events, downstream work resumed later. The current national average operating rate is 63%, basically 80% of the same period last year. From the perspective of downstream sub-sectors, the operating rate of pipes, films and sheets in North China has gradually increased, and there is room for further recovery from the annual highs; the operating rate of films, pipes, sheets and sheets in East China has risen to mid-year Slightly higher level; the operating rate of pipes, membranes and profiles in South China is at a moderately high level annually.

From the current inventory level, removing the impact of the new sample, inventory is 2.2% higher than the same period last year. Taking into account factors such as new production capacity, shrinking foreign trade demand and the speed of demand recovery, according to the theoretical data model of V Wind, high inventory pressure is expected to ease after April 8 to April 15. If the global social public events in April-May are effectively controlled and foreign trade orders resume one after another, the pressure of PVC inventory will continue to decline, and specific attention needs to be paid to the changes in actual inventory.

Overall, the current PVC price index is at a low level in 2017, which is 15.7% lower than the average since 2017. From the perspective of the actual industrial situation, there is no clear inflection point for high PVC inventory. With the continuous recovery of the demand side, inventory is expected to show a high decline in mid-April. Inventory pressure will be eased. The actual evolution of inventory needs to be tracked. Before public events in the global society are effectively controlled, it is recommended to give priority to the risk factors of the market, and be cautious when participating in transactions.