January Petrocoke Market Trends: First Rise, Then Fall

January 31st, News

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petcoke from local refineries in January first increased and then decreased, with a slight overall increase. The average price of medium-sulfur petcoke products from major local refineries in China was 2,691.75 CNY/ton on January 30, up from 2,598.25 CNY/ton on January 1, representing an overall increase of 3.6%.

On the cost side: In January, international crude oil prices experienced volatile upward trends. The crude oil market was boosted by multiple positive factors, including supply disruptions caused by the U.S. winter storm and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The core driver was the significant short-term supply disruption, coupled with a rebound in geopolitical risk premiums, which led to a concentrated release of bullish sentiment and sustained upward momentum in crude oil prices. As a direct result, China's refined oil market followed suit, with gasoline and diesel prices rising accordingly.

Supply side: In January, the market for petroleum coke from local refineries in China first rose and then fell. In the first ten days of January, downstream carbon and anode enterprises still supported the demand for petroleum coke, with good market transactions, and the price of petroleum coke from local refineries continued to rise. In mid-January, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries dropped, with general market transactions; refineries slowed down their shipments and actively reduced prices to promote sales. In the latter part of the month, shipments from the local refinery market improved, with active market transactions, supporting some refineries to push up the price of coke.

On the demand side: According to analysis from the market monitoring system, China’s metallurgical-grade silicon prices saw a slight increase in January, reaching 9,650 CNY per ton on January 30, up from 9,620 CNY per ton on January 1—a rise of 0.31% overall. In some regions, major industrial silicon producers still have ongoing plans to reduce production and carry out maintenance, leading to a continued downward trend in overall plant operating rates. Consequently, the overall supply pressure in the metallurgical-grade silicon market remains relatively mild, and factories have not yet implemented any significant inventory-depletion plans. The silicon industry continues to show demand for petroleum coke in the market.

In January, the price of medium and high sulfur calcined coke in China saw a slight increase. Recently, the market for medium and high sulfur calcined coke in China has remained stable, with downstream enterprises showing steady demand. Most companies have already sold their new orders for next month.

Aluminum prices continued to perform strongly in January. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 30, 2026, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24,666.67 CNY per ton, up 9.76% from the average price of 22,473.33 CNY per ton on January 1. As downstream processing enterprises gradually went on holiday ahead of the Spring Festival, the traditional off-season for consumption, coupled with high prices that dampened purchasing intentions, led to a continuous buildup of aluminum ingot inventories held by society (as of January 28, China’s social inventories stood at approximately 796,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week, nearing 800,000 tons and higher than the level of the same period last year). The discount of spot prices relative to futures contracts widened, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude among downstream users. Meanwhile, downstream carbon products used in aluminum production continue to be driven primarily by rigid demand in the petroleum coke market.

Outlook: As the Chinese New Year approaches, some refineries in China have plans to reduce inventory before the holiday. Additionally, with moderate purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, there is limited support for the petcoke market. Market participants are cautious, and it is expected that the petcoke market will mainly consolidate in the near term.