​In 2025, the planned production capacity of PBAT resin is approximately 15 million tons.​

Prior to 2019, the development of the domestic PBAT was gradual. With the release of the new "plastic limit order" in 2020, the development of the industry accelerated significantly, and the output of PBAT surged to 130,000 tons in 2020.

Strong market demand and insufficient production capacity have prompted numerous enterprises to get involved in the PBAT production industry. Global production of biodegradable plastics stood at 1.553 million tons in 2021 and is expected to grow to 5.297 million tons by 2026, a CAGR of 28 percent, according to the European Bioplastics Association. Among them, PBAT/PBS (both of which can be produced by the same flexible production line, classified as PBAT) accounted for 35% in 2021.

By the end of 2021, the domestic PBAT has put into production with a production capacity of 521,000 tons/year and is under construction with a production capacity of 1.52 million tons/year, among which the largest production scale is Lanshan Tunhe (128,000 tons/year), Jinfa Technology (120,000 tons/year) and Changhong High-tech (120,000 tons/year).

The existing capacity of the domestic PBAT plant is 903,000 tons per annum and the new capacity will be 148 tons per annum.

According to statistics from the Biodegradable Resin Branch of the China Synthetic Resin Association, the planned production capacity of PBAT resin in 2025 is around 15 million tons per year. Currently, the production capacity of PBAT resin is already considerably larger than the market demand, and the share of excess capacity will grow over time.

Three countermeasures against overcapacity.

Wang Wenguang, executive vice-president of the China Synthetic Resin Association, said it is necessary for enterprises already in production to plan their capacity and output reasonably..In the current situation of serious excess production capacity of PBAT resin, each production enterprise should reasonably plan output according to the market demand, and it is suggested that the operation rate should be maintained at a low load, so as to avoid the imbalance of market supply and demand caused by excess production capacity, and then lead to vicious competition. For enterprises that have completed or are in trial runs, it is recommended to delay production or transfer to additional varieties depending on the characteristics of the production line..For companies planning to invest, cautious entry into the market is recommended..If you have not yet invested your money, you can reconsider whether to do so..At the moment, the outlook for PBAT resins is not positive, so you should be cautious about investing.

To address the excess capacity of PBAT resin, Wang pointed out three development paths.

1. Innovative research and development to improve the quality of PBAT products.

In the case of plastic shopping bags, currently, plastic shopping bags filled with modified PBAT resin suffer from defects such as insufficient strength, which affects consumer use, and the trend of being surpassed by nonwoven bags, "he asserted.. Therefore, the industry should strengthen product innovation and research and development to improve the strength of PBAT shopping bags in strict accordance with the published PBAT film special material group standards for production. It is recommended that the total packing volume of the modified PBAT film specialty material should not exceed 30% to ensure product strength.

2. Joint development of modern uses for PBAT resins.

Currently, PBAT is mainly applied to plastic shopping bags, and the market demand is not large enough to absorb the existing planned capacity. Businesses can develop different applications of PBAT resin and open new markets, such as plastic film, rewinding bags and garbage bags.

3. Set your sights on international markets.

The quality of PBAT resins in China is world-class, with production capacity far in excess of domestic market demand. However, only BASF and Italy's Novoment make PBAT resin in the world, "he suggested. Currently, numerous countries have introduced policies to control plastic pollution, and the demand for PBAT resins is increasing, so the industry should focus on international markets.