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2021 half year summary —— Polyurethane
TDI |Polymerized MDI|Polyether|Adipic acid|BDO
    
TDI
The fluctuation curve of TDI is obvious and relatively single. Therefore, the overall TDI in the first half of the year was overshadowed, and the presence was not strong.

After the accumulation of power in December 20 and most of January 21, the market began to accumulate in late January. The price of Shanghai goods in East China rose from the low of 12,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and reached the high of 19,500 yuan at the end of February. /Ton (compared to the price of domestically produced goods fluctuates between 1,2000-19,000 yuan/ton). The so-called "heavy accumulation" mainly refers to scattered exports and on-site consumption.

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It is worth mentioning that the market once showed resilience after mid-June, and the prices of domestic products fluctuated around 13,000 yuan/ton.

This is based on the judgment that the price of domestic products was at a low level of 12,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and the overall cost of the factory has risen in the next six months, and the market has gradually formed a bottom position of 13,000 yuan/ton. But for the current TDI market, it is difficult for the market to have a unified consensus.

TDI Export Data

Looking at exports, the overall TDI performance from January to May has been relatively good. According to customs statistics, as of May, TDI exports were 178,000 tons, an increase of 203% over the same period last year. The export data is better than the same period last year. This is based on the fact that under the epidemic situation, China's overall resumption of work and production is better than that of foreign countries. However, it can be seen from the above chart that China’s TDI exports in the second quarter of 2021 declined compared to the first quarter. The main reason is that the supply of TDI devices in the United States resumed in April. In addition, demand in South America and other places was weak, and the issue of rising ocean freight rates was discussed frequently recently.
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TDI3-PC

The Next Trend of TDI in 2021

In the second half of the year, China's TDI market is still under pressure, and it is still too early to talk about the second round of lows for TDI this year. Downstream foaming is still in the off-season, and the market demand is initially expected to improve in late July. On the export side, due to high freight rates, overall exports are not optimistic. The short-term improvement in market demand is insufficient, and prices may continue to fall slightly in early July, seeking a second low during the year.
TDI2-PC

Polymerized MDI

Polymer MDI, a highly inclusive product, has never been content with the "status quo" in the polyurethane industry. It is said to be very tolerant, mainly because she involves a lot of downstream fields, including refrigerators and freezers, automobiles, exterior wall pipe insulation, paint adhesives, etc.
Halfway through 2021, looking back at the aggregate MDI market in the first half of the year, the overall appearance of the "parabola" font. From January to February, the price was in the stage of rapid price increase. From March to June, it was in the stage of price decline, and after the beginning of June, it was in the stage of repair.

The people outside the court admired its peace, and those inside told its ups and downs.

Trends of Polymerized MDI in Recent Years

未命名_副本

From the perspective of exports, the overall export situation of China's polymerized MDI in the first half of the year was good.

For the second half of the year, the market was not calm. Let’s look at July first. At the beginning, the attitude of the factory was relatively mild. However, the market was clearly still waiting for the good news, namely, the overhaul of the Yantai plant in the northern factory from mid-July to August.rom the perspective of downstream demand, although downstream demand was still weak in July, the market fundamentals are gradually improving in the third quarter of the peak season.

Polyether

Polyether1

In terms of price: the average price in the first half of the year increased by 90% year-on-year
In the first half of 2021 , China's polyether market fluctuated at a high level and then fell sharply. In March, the monthly average price of Shandong soft foam polyether reached a record high of 19316 yuan/ton.

The market atmosphere in the second quarter declined significantly, and the market supply and demand were more negative

First, the market gradually entered the off-season, with high polyether prices, more speculation in the downstream, and insufficient buying momentum to follow up. The second is the increase in supply.China’s new device Binzhou Jiahua continued to increase its output in the middle of the year. With the new PO production capacity of the South China Sea Shell plant, the production of polyether gradually increased. The goods flowed from south to north. East China and South China were imported and due to the abundant supply of South China, factory shipments under pressure.

Profit: soft bubble profit gradually weakened

The price of propylene oxide: the overall high, band operation
In the first half of 2020, the domestic propylene oxide market was hit by the outbreak of the epidemic and out of control of crude oil, and the overall price operation was sluggish. Following the prevention and control and recovery of all parties, the market became stronger and higher. Entering 2021, the overall operation is still high, but the market Changes are already taking place.
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polyether2
poly-supply

Supply Side: construction starts in the post-epidemic era

In terms of supply, as shown in the figure above, both output and start-up have increased significantly year-on-year, mainly in the first half of 2020 , which is in the critical period of anti-epidemic. Looking at this year, the monthly output in the first half of 2021 will be more than 300,000 tons, especially driven by the large supply of new equipment and export orders, it reached 365,000 tons in April , and the overall start-up reached 56.2% . The start of production from May to June has declined, the main demand is obvious in the off-season, the export trend is decreasing, and the overall output is slightly reduced. In the third quarter, there was a certain improvement in demand for elastomers and other waterproof and plastic track polyether materials. It is expected that there will be some rigid demand in the future.

Adipic acid
Looking back at the first half of 2021, the price of adipic acid market has risen sharply, and the price is at the highest level in the past three years. However, the level of profit margins fluctuates sharply, and even losses occur.

Looking at the price chart of adipic acid in the past three years, the market showed a bull market in the first half of 2021, and the price was significantly higher than the previous two years. The average price in the East China market rose from RMB 7,650/ton at the beginning of the year to around RMB 10,600/ton at the end of June, an increase of 24%.

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According to the average monthly profit, the profit margin of adipic acid in the first half of 2021 is in the range of -466 to 2013 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the profit of adipic acid was profitable most of the time. The highest point occurred in March, mainly due to the high level of raw materials and favorable supply and demand support at that time, and the price of adipic acid reached a high point during the year. Then the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, the price of adipic acid continued to decline

From January to May 2021, China's total imports of adipic acid were 6389.4 tons, an increase of 74.7% year-on-year. The total export volume from January to May reached 17,2252.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%.

Adipic Acid Average Monthly Profit

Adipic acid_export
BDO (1,4 butanediol)
In 2021 , the BDO has stepped out of the "six-affirmation".

From the comparison of price data in the past five years, it can be seen that the overall volatility in 2021 is greater than in previous years. Even if affected by the epidemic in 2020, the acceptance price of bulk water in East China will only fluctuate between 7,300-12,400 yuan/ton. In the first 7 months of 2021, there will be two rounds of growth cycles in the market as a whole.

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As the epidemic eased, the operation started to rise after the market became warmer, but Until 2021, it will still be maintained at the level of 60%-70%, and the overall operating rate is not high. Since the second half of 2020, BDO downstream PTMEG to spandex industry chain has been very popular, and its consumption of BDO has been at a high level for a long time. Maintain the status of pre-delivery orders. This is also the background factor for the upward trend of BDO prices since the end of the year, and the supply of goods on the market is relatively tight.

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Operating Rate Statistics

The second round of growth in the same year was also due to tight supply. From the operating rate statistics chart, it can be seen that the operating rate of BDO devices in China was still 83% at the end of June. At around 60%, according to statistics, the average operating rate of BDO devices in July was only 72%, a decline of 7 points from the previous month, and the monthly supply decreased by 13,148 tons from the previous month. In contrast to the demand side, the BDO-PTMEG-spandex industry chain maintained a high rate of attention in the first half of the year. Epidemic prevention and control and changes in living habits have led to a higher start of spandex. The demand for spandex, such as masks, protective clothing, sportswear, and fitness clothing, is stable, and PTMEG has even started more than 90%. In addition, since July, the start of the PBT industry has increased to about 70%, which has also boosted the demand for BDO. Supply reduction and stable downstream demand are the key to this round of price increases.
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chart

The sharp increase in prices has also led to a substantial increase in the overall profit of the factory.

As of the end of July, the average profit of the BDO acetylene aldehyde process plant was 10,108 yuan/ton. In 2019-2020, the average profit of the factory will even be in a state of loss, and the industry's prosperity is obviously The rising period. Looking specifically at the downstream, PTMEG is the downstream with the largest proportion of BDO, and the current statistics account for about 52%, while the main downstream spandex production capacity of PTMEG is still growing rapidly; followed by PBT engineering plastics, accounting for 26%; while PBA is currently The proportion is not high, but with the explosive growth of biodegradable plastics, the demand for BDO will be greatly stimulated in the future.

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