There are uncertainties in the export of potassium chloride and potassiu sulfate

Imports of potassium chloride fell sharply, prices fell slightly


From January to March 2020, China imported 2.066 million tons of potassium chloride (Tax number: 31042090), with a cumulative average price of US $ 275.3 / ton, which was a 30% and a small decrease from the 2.952 million tons and US $ 291.3 / ton in the same period of 2019. Fell 5%. The average import volume in the first quarter of the first five years was 2.496 million tons, and the import volume in the first quarter of this year has returned to the level of 2016 and before.


From the perspective of trade methods, the largest share of China's potassium chloride imports in January-March were bonded supervision sites and special supervision area goods, with 1.366 million tons, accounting for 66%; followed by small-scale border trade goods, It is 412,000 tons, accounting for 20%, which is a large increase from the 314,000 tons in the same period of 2019, but it has not changed much from the average level in the first quarter in recent years; finally it is general trade goods, only 287,000 Tons, accounting for 14%.


From the perspective of importing countries, from January to March, China ’s potassium chloride imports were 990,000 tons from Canada, accounting for 48%; from Russia, 629,000 tons, accounting for 30%; from Belarus It is 289,000 tons, accounting for 14; the rest are 79,000 tons in Jordan, 51,000 tons in Israel, 23,000 tons in Laos, and 5,000 tons in Germany.


The decrease in the import volume of potassium chloride in the first quarter is an inevitable result of the large contracts that have not yet been signed, but the current situation of port deposits is more complicated. The conventional port deposits are only about 1 million. This level is already extremely low, but the quasi spot in the bonded area The quantity is about 2.7 million tons. Once the two are combined, this level is extremely high. This situation has also brought great variables to the negotiation of large contracts. But for the time being, at least in the short term, the bargaining chips are still more in our side. The latest rumors say that large contracts will be signed soon. If so, the greatly reduced cost, especially the huge amount of spot, will make the price of potassium chloride quickly move closer to the new cost.


The export volume of potassium sulfate exploded and the price dropped


From January to March 2020, China exported 95,500 tons of potassium sulfate (tax number: 31043000), with a cumulative average price of US $ 423.2 / ton, a 166% increase and a sharp drop from the 35,900 tons and US $ 476.4 / ton in the same period of 2019, respectively 11%. (Since the export of potassium sulfate has started zero tariffs since 2019, the quantity comparison under the previous high tariffs is meaningless, but the number of exports in the first quarter of the second year is still skyrocketing year-on-year, which indeed shows that the export prospects are expected.)


From the point of view of exporting countries, the most important destination of China's potassium sulfate exports from January to March is Iran, with a volume of 39,500 tons, accounting for 41%; followed by Mexico, with a volume of 15,900 tons, accounting for 17%, third For Peru, the number is 0.66 million tons, accounting for 7%; the rest are 50,600 tons in Japan, 0.33 million tons in South Africa, 25 thousand tons in Costa Rica and India, and so on.


As public health incidents are raging around the world, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the import of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate in the later period. In the near future, potassium sulfate export appears to be in crisis, so the number of new orders is small, plus spring The peak season has passed, and potassium chloride is falling, so potassium sulfate exports may show a situation where thousands of troops cross the Dumu Bridge. Although this description is somewhat exaggerated, the prospect of exports has temporarily cast a shadow. The improvement of the market of potassium sulfate in the later period, expecting that exports should still be the choice of a few people.