Compound fertilizer market demand enters off-season

At the beginning of May, the fertilizer market entered another situation. India's bidding at the end of April, the potash fertilizer contract that was delayed for more than a year was also signed on April 30. When April and May alternated, so many major events happened. The big contract pre-judgment was made as early as before, and the fallback expectations were basically the same, so after these two events, where will the compound fertilizer market go?

First of all, India's tendering is not effective, and urea has to fall to cost. India ’s new tender on April 30 opened on May 7. The price is more bearish. According to the survey, it is estimated that the CIF price may be only 240 US dollars / ton, the total port price is below 1620 CNY/ton, remove the freight, then The possibility of the price of urea falling to 1500 CNY/ton is relatively high. If there are more successful bids in the later period, there may be some favorable factors. Therefore, we still need to pay close attention to the results of the bidding in India. The low-end quotation of the factory has broken through 1600 CNY/ton, and the price of small particles in Inner Mongolia has fallen below 1500 CNY/ton. The cost line is in jeopardy.

Secondly, the potash fertilizer contract came as scheduled, and the downward trend has become inevitable in the later period. Although the potash fertilizer contract was signed only in Belarus, other countries have not signed it, but the US $ 220 fell by US $ 70, corresponding to the low port price, and it is expected to fall back in the later period. The negotiations between the companies, as well as the quantity and speed of arrival, these factors will affect the rate of decline of potassium fertilizer prices in the later period, and the decline of potassium chloride will inevitably affect the price trend of potassium sulfate.

Once again, the prices of urea and potash fertilizers went down, and the cost of compound fertilizers was difficult to support. Compared with the urea price in March, the current price of urea fell by more than 100 CNY/ton, and the potassium fertilizer is expected to fall by more than 100 CNY/ton. In addition, the prices of monoammonium and diammonium have also fallen recently, so for compound fertilizers In terms of cost, the downward trend is inevitable, but most of the pre-orders of most fertilizer companies have not yet been completely completed, and most of the previous high-price orders are mainly. However, it is of little significance to drop in prices during the spring and summer, so the short-term price stalemate It is necessary to be strong, but in the middle and late May, on the basis of the sharp decline in raw material costs, the price of compound fertilizers, especially high-nitrogen fertilizers and sulfur-based fertilizers, will inevitably fall, and the range will be relatively large.

Overall, the market demand for compound fertilizers has gradually entered the off-season. Perhaps some companies will take a short-term parking respite, or short-term price fixing will dominate.