Asia-Pacific to Lead Global Automotive Lubricant Demand

Global automotive lubricant demand is forecast to rise 1.6% per year through 2021. Strong economic growth in developing economies will lead to increased agricultural and mining output, as well as rising construction activity, which in turn will drive strong gains in off-highway automotive lubricants. These trends are presented in a new study from US-based industry research firm, The Freedonia Group.

Demand in the Asia/Pacific region is expected to increase 3.2% per annum to 11.0-mt during the forecast period. According to Freedonia, the major factors contributing to the world’s fastest regional growth rate are:

> Continued increases in the region’s light vehicle and medium & heavy truck and

> bus parc (or vehicle population);

> Increase in construction activity across the region;

> Acceleration in the agriculture sector due to a regional trend of increasing use of

> tractors in the farming industry; and

> Increase in regional motorcycle parc.

Impact of electric vehicles

Electric vehicles are viewed by China and other countries (such as Germany, Japan, and Norway) as an effective means of meeting climate change commitments and reducing air pollution. Additionally, electric vehicles are expected to be the basis for new, autonomous driving systems being developed by a number of companies. “However, through 2021 their impact on automotive lubricant demand will remain limited due to the size of the existing electric vehicle parc and the challenges of expanding their presence in the market without significant subsidies. This will change over the long term, though, as electric vehicles become a bigger part of the market,” the report noted.