BDO 08 monthly report — BDO market rebounded overal

● Most major factories still maintain a shutdown state for maintenance

● Downstream starts have increased and the overall remains low

● BDO market rebounded overal

Domestic BDO Price Trend Chart 2019-2020

The domestic BDO market rebounded strongly this month. As of the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation of bulk cargo sources in East China was RMB 8,000-8200/ton, an increase of RMB 500/ton from the previous month. The factory first raised the guidance price in August, and the new moon listing price at the end of the month also rose. The long-term profit loss has made the factory a strong profit mentality, and the new single offer is firm. Distributors follow the steps of the factory, and they are also reluctant to sell at low prices, and offer high prices to wait for downstream follow-up. The overall start-up of the main downstream has increased, and the consumption of BDO has increased, but the current resistance to high market prices still exists. The market tends to maintain rigid demand and buy at low prices.

I. Overall market analysis

1. Factory installation BDO this month

The operating rate of the alkyne aldehyde plant is 44.8% and the monthly output is 57000 tons.

2. Raw material cost and change analysis

The operating rate in the Mainland basically returned to normal in August, and the short-term supply easing situation may continue. However, the logistics problem that plagued mainland manufacturers may be alleviated next month. By then, prices in the main producing areas are expected to rise, and ports may be under pressure due to the 09 contract delivery, mainly due to high fluctuations. my country's domestic methanol market may be dominated by shocks in September, and some areas are expected to rise.

3. Main downstream start-up analysis

Under the influence of the epidemic PBT industry, PTMEG industry to reduce the burden of production, BDO downstream overall start lower.

4. Next month's Market Trend Forecast

II.Views and Summary

Market forecast for the next period: In the short term, suppliers’ profits are under pressure and inventory levels are low and the market’s confidence and willingness are strong. Distributors are cautious and sell at low prices. It is expected that the market will continue to explore further next week under the strong push of suppliers. Possibly, pay attention to changes in the mentality of the supply and demand sides.

DMF 08 monthly report — DMF market continues to rise sharply

Market overview for the year

Domestic BDO Price Trend Chart 2018-2020

In August, the domestic DMF market continued to rise sharply.

At the beginning of August, some DMF factories started construction and shipments increased compared with the previous period, and the supply side was slightly looser than the previous period, and the market rally came to an end. However, the supply of DMF recovered by downstream tannery is still tight, and the market's amount of synthesis is acceptable. DMF manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and there is still an intention to maintain a high price. However, Shaanxi Xinghua reduced production of its DMF devices due to equipment failures, and maintained maintenance plans. Affected by this, the tight supply situation has once again been highlighted, the market is bullish, and market offers in various regions have risen sharply.

In the middle of the month, Luxi Chemical Industry was shut down for a week due to the adjustment of the power supply station in the park, and then the Xinghua plant in Shaanxi was shut down for maintenance on August 18. The DMF of the factory was sold in quantity, and the supply side was more favorable. It was difficult to find the spot in the market for a while, and the supplier continued Under the control of the disk, the price center of gravity further rose. Affected by the continuous rise of raw materials, some end-users entered the market to stock up appropriately, and the downstream slurry production started slightly increased, and the quotation also rose. However, after the completion of the replenishment stage, downstream resistance gradually increased. In order to relieve the cost pressure, the slurry plant increased the use of recycled DMF from the tannery, resulting in a reduction in the use of synthetic DMF.

In the second half of the month, as the Luxi chemical plant resumed work, the supply of goods continued to supplement the northern market, while the downstream demand shrank, high-priced transactions were lacking in the market, and the short-term consolidation was less than a week. The actual factory shipment prices were loosened, and market participants' bearish sentiment increased. , The center of gravity of the market prices in various regions subsequently fell slightly.

Next month, Shaanxi Xinghua plans to resume construction. The industry players are cautious and wait and see. In the short-term, due to the weak downstream demand stage, the market is expected to show a slight correction.

I.Overall market analysis

1. Factory installation DMF this month

In August, the average monthly operating rate of domestic DMF companies was about 47.7%. In the middle of the ten days, Luxi Chemical Industry Park’s power supply station was adjusted and the plant was shut down for a week; Shaanxi Xinghua’s 100,000-ton/year plant was shut down for maintenance on August 18 and is expected to resume work in early September; Anyang Jiutian’s plant maintenance has not been scheduled and is expected to be DMF in September The operating rate increased year-on-year.

2. Raw material cost and change analysis

Methanol:

 In August, the operating rate in the Mainland basically returned to normal, and the short-term loose supply situation may continue. However, the logistics problem that plagued mainland manufacturers may be alleviated next month. By then, prices in the main producing areas are expected to rise, and ports may be under pressure due to the 09 contract delivery, mainly due to high fluctuations. my country's domestic methanol market may be dominated by shocks in September, and some regions are expected to rise.

In August, overall methanol price fluctuations were limited, while DMF prices rose broadly and profitability further improved.

3. Main downstream start-up analysis

This month, the domestic slurry market rose sharply. Affected by the rise in raw materials, slurry manufacturers uniformly raised 1,200 CNY/ton on August 14. In addition, driven by end users' replenishment in the market, the starting load of slurry manufacturers increased.

4. Next month's Market Trend Forecast

II.Views and Summary

On the whole, the current high prices have led to downstream conflicts, and the pace of market shipments is slow. At the end of the month, some factories have yielded profits, increasing the market's bearish mentality. If there is no significant improvement in demand in the short term, and the supply side is expected to recover, the market is expected to recover slightly Mainly.

Adipic acid 08 monthly report

Market overview for the year

 Domestic adipic acid price trend chart 2019-2020

In August, the domestic adipic acid market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, crude oil rose and the external market rose within a narrow range. The main raw material pure benzene listing was raised to 3450 CNY/ton, and the pressure on the cost side increased; at the same time, Hualu Hengsheng released good news about the maintenance from August 7th, and the factory has a strong market intention. Listed prices have been raised one after another. Supported by rising costs, holders have a fair mentality, and offers continue to be small

Rising sharply, but limited buying stimulus to the middle and lower reaches. During the month, downstream buying continued to be weak, the overall market trading rhythm was slow, and transactions at high prices were not smooth. In addition, the spot price of raw material pure benzene has declined, cost support has weakened, and the attitude of holders of holding prices has become loose, and the mid-month high offers have begun to callback. Although Henan Shenma Technology’s 150,000-ton/year installation was shut down for maintenance in the middle of the month, but the favorable support was insufficient, and the overall supply was still abundant, the market performance was weak, and the inventory pressure of some manufacturers increased the negotiation intentions and traders were also active Shipment

The market price of adipic acid dropped to a certain extent in the second half of the year. Approaching the end of the month, with the arrival of the settlement cycle, the wait-and-see sentiment of holders increased, and the offer was mainly weak and stable, and the downstream mostly maintained a small amount of small order purchases. The overall news of the factory is still unclear, and the short-term market is expected to wait and see.

I.Overall market analysis

1. International market price comparison

2. Installation of adipic acid plant this month

In August, the domestic average monthly operating rate of adipic acid was 58.4%.

3. Raw material cost and change analysis

The domestic pure benzene market showed a weak downward trend this month. External news faced with limited support from the domestic pure benzene market and the impact of loose domestic supply and demand, the pure benzene market lacked support and the trend was weak.

At the beginning of the month, due to the strong performance of external news, the market stimulated the main business listing price to increase by 100 CNY/ton, which supported the domestic market to rise. However, with the centralized maintenance of downstream devices, the demand for pure benzene decreased. The start of hydrogen benzene is relatively high, and East China port inventories are still rising. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the market has stagnated and declined, and the outer disk of pure benzene has been weakly down. The market confidence is insufficient. The news has strengthened again and some downstream installations have driven the demand to pick up, making the pure benzene market maintain a stalemate and consolidation.

Looking ahead, on the external side, although there is still uncertainty about the overseas epidemic, the hurricane affects US crude oil production. It is expected that the trend of international crude oil will remain range-bound; on the external side, the internal and external markets will remain inverted. On the whole, external news faces the guidance of the domestic market. Sex is average. Although both ends of supply and demand are expected to increase, the supply has increased significantly, and the pressure on supply and demand in the pure benzene market is still relatively large. It is expected that the market may maintain a stalemate and consolidation in the first half of September. In the second half of the month, as the National Day holiday approaches, downstream stocks will be prepared in advance. Or to drive the market upward, we still need to pay close attention to the development of upstream and downstream devices and the main price guidance.

4. Main downstream start-up analysis

The downstream slurry start load is 5-60%, and the sole stock market is slowly recovering. The overall start-up is 70%. TPU market opened

The workforce remained at around 80%, and overall demand has not increased significantly for the time being; the main factories in the nylon field started at around 60%. End of August

End demand is still not strong, most of the time in the traditional off-season.

5. Market trend forecast for next month

II.Views and Summary

On the whole, with the increase in the listed price of pure benzene at the end of July, the cost side support is more obvious. Hualu Hengsheng plans to shut down for maintenance for about 20 days in August for the 160,000 tons/year plant, and the good news about the supply side is released. Intermediary business policy is low and the intention is not strong, and the supply offer in August pulled up slightly. In the downstream, both domestic and external demand are insufficient. The export of adipic acid was also poor, with the domestic export volume of adipic acid falling by about 12% year-on-year from January to June. On the whole, it is expected that in August, supported by favorable costs, the adipic acid market will show a slight upward trend, but due to the weak downstream demand, the market growth rate may be limited.