The pace of the current global energy transition has been quite fast

On September 9, the latest "Energy Transition Outlook" report released by DNV GL pointed out that the behavioral and economic consequences of the new crown virus epidemic will permanently reduce global energy demand. This year's carbon dioxide emissions are expected to fall by 8%, making the past 2019 the peak year of carbon dioxide emissions. However, we will still break through the carbon budget target of a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2028. If this target is to be achieved, then by the middle of this century, we will have to repeat the 2020 carbon emission reduction every year.

"The novel coronavirus has changed the global energy outlook, but the global climate crisis is still as urgent as before the epidemic," said Remi Eriksen, President and CEO of DNV GL Group. "The earlier optimism about the reduction of air pollution has already It was replaced by a cold reality, not because of the increase in the degree of decarbonization of the energy structure, but because of the short-term changes unique to the epidemic. We can use the technology we have at hand to accelerate the transformation, but now more than ever, we need the country And industry incentives to achieve the ambitious goals of the Paris climate agreement."

　　 The technology that created the Paris Agreement envisioned the future exists. As natural gas will become the largest source of energy in 2026, it plays a vital role, but DNV GL predicts that only 13% of natural gas can be decarbonized by the middle of this century. The development of hydrogen energy has benefited from the promotion of EU policies, but the share of hydrogen in energy demand is only 6% by 2050. Decarbonized gases, including hydrogen, have extremely important emission reduction significance for industries that are difficult to reduce emissions, such as building heating and other industries with high heating demand, but they still need strong policy promotion to produce The influence of meaning.

　　 The report pointed out that the current pace of energy transition has been quite fast. In just one generation, the share of renewable energy and fossil fuels in the energy mix will be almost the same, while the current ratio is about 20% and 80%. By the middle of this century, the proportion of electricity in the final energy structure is expected to double, of which solar photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation will each account for 31%. Floating offshore wind power will grow rapidly. DNV GL predicts that by 2050, floating offshore wind power will become a new large-scale industry with an installed capacity of 250GW.

　　DNV GL predicts that by 2032, half of new car sales will be electric vehicles. As a result, oil demand for road traffic will drop sharply. DNV GL predicts that from 2018 to 2050, oil demand will be reduced by 56%. The same policy lever must also be used to stimulate other important technologies to reduce energy use and emissions. For example, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important part of natural gas decarbonization, including the production of "blue hydrogen". However, lack of adequate policy coordination means that only 11% of carbon emissions can be captured by 2050. And this technology has been available as early as the 1970s.