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Home > News > ECHEMI Analysis > Market Analysis - Monthly Report - September, 2020 - Xylitol

Market Analysis - Monthly Report - September, 2020 - Xylitol

ECHEMI 2020-10-20

1. Overview of market conditions in this period

Affected by the epidemic situation, crude oil fell first and then rose, crude oil price range fluctuated, harvest pressure and sales factors interweaved, US corn rose again, new season corn delayed listing, port quotation continued to rise, demand rose after the holiday, starch rose with corn

 

Market Analysis - Monthly Report - September, 2020

 

2. Analysis of domestic situation

FACTORS OF INFLUENCE

HIGHLIGHTS

JUDGMENT

FACTORY OPERATING RATE, INVENTORY AND PRESSURE

Construction started normally. Zhejiang Huakang, Anyang Yuxin, Shandong Futian, etc. are currently only starting 40% -50%, but the inventory is normally high and Longli ’s inventory pressure is still small

Good

MARKET DEMAND

Price volatility, weak market demand, strong wait-and-see mood

Bearish

MARKET MENTALITY

Fierce market competition, serious competition for customers, mainly deal

Bearish

FACTORY FALLING PRICE MENTALITY

The vacant market share is large, the factory is uneven, and each low price competes for the share

Bearish

UPSTREAM RAW MATERIALS

Starch sales quotations are generally raised, and downstream is cautiously chasing after rising

Good

INDUSTRY EVENTS

European production cut

Good

COMPREHENSIVE JUDGMENT

Manufacturers' inventory returned to normal. Although the upstream prices were firm, market demand was weak. The prices were running smoothly as various manufacturers traded to compete for share.

Bearish

 In the fourth week of July, the weather improved in the growth stage of American corn, and the negative effect of high-yield expectation coexisted with the beneficial effect of China's expansion of imports. CBOT corn futures price continued to fall under the influence of bad weather. At present, the US corn futures price fell to the low range of 320-330 cents before the area report. In the 9th week, 3974200 tons of temporary storage corn were sold, which continued the characteristics of high turnover and high premium. The high price of auction continued the bullish sentiment of traders, and helped to maintain high market expectations in production areas and ports. However, it should be noted that after entering July, the first two rounds of temporary storage corn delivery period is approaching. In the case of still profitable, the outflow of temporary storage grain has increased in the near future, and the grain quantity of deep processing trade has increased, and the phased supply of corn market tends to be enlarged in August. Last week, corn increased its position in January and rose by more than 2% in September. In the night trading session, corn contracts in the near and far months continued to rise, and bullish sentiment continued to spread. Up to now, the auction has lasted for 9 weeks, the transaction is hot, the premium is constantly high, and the cost factor provides support for the corn market. At present, the corn futures prices are soaring, and the futures prices of various agricultural products are linked up, and the price range of related commodities is gradually rising. On the whole, the high premium of corn and starch Market, the expansion of imports, the auction of old rice and other short-term factors coexist, short-term corn period, the current market continued strong performance.Current domestic manufacturers offer:

FACTORY NAME

FACTORY PRICE (USD)

CHANGE (COMPARED TO LAST WEEK)

DEVICE CAPACITY

DEVICE OPERATION STATUS

SHANDONG FUTIAN

2900

Flat

30000Tons / year

20Tons / day

ANYANG YUXIN

2850

Flat

20000Tons / year

10Tons / day

SHANDONG LONGLI

/

Flat

25000Tons / year

6Tons / day

 

3. Summary and Forecast

After the 11th National Day, the purchase price of corn in production areas and ports went up rapidly, the starch quotation rose in revenge, and the spot price rose strongly, which provided strong support for the upward trend of corn and starch price. Mid week, affected by the expansion of imported rumors, corn in the near and far month contracts adjusted intraday, followed by bulls again increased, the strong trend of corn continued. In terms of technology, the corn in the agricultural products sector continued to lead the rally. On Friday night, the contract increase of corn in January broke through the integer pressure of 2600 yuan, and the bull trend continued to dominate.

According to the fundamental situation of market supply and demand, it is believed that the logic of the bull market in the starch market is transformed from the supply side to the demand side. The negative impact of the demand-side epidemic on the economy and consumption cannot be ignored. Before proceeding, trade with caution.  The downstream customers purchase because of the epidemic and the market transactions are generally.

Disclaimer: ECHEMI reserves the right of final explanation and revision for all the information.

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