EIA predicts global liquid fuel production will exceed demand this year and next

According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global liquid fuel production is projected to exceed demand in 2023 and 2024.

In its STEO released this week, the EIA forecast total global production will reach 101.47 million barrels per day this year and 103.2 million barrels per day next year. STEO expects total global consumption to reach 100.9 million b/d in 2023 and 102.69 million b/d in 2024.

On a quarterly basis, the latest STEO expects global production to total 100.73 million bpd in the first quarter of this year, 101.28 million bpd in the second quarter, 101.92 million bpd in the third quarter and 101.93 million bpd in the fourth quarter /day, 102.27 million barrels/day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.85 million barrels/day in the second quarter, 103.43 million barrels/day in the third quarter, and 103.53 million barrels/day in the fourth quarter.

The latest STEO expects total global consumption to be 99.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 100.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.56 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. 102.04 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 102.31 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.25 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.14 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA outlined in its March STEO that total global oil production and consumption in 2022 will be 99.86 million barrels per day and 99.42 million barrels per day, respectively. Stabilizing total global production at 99.95 million bpd and global consumption at 99.36 million bpd in the February STEO, EIA expects total global production to reach 101.1 million bpd in 2023 and 102.61 million bpd in 2024 /sky. Total world consumption is expected to reach 100.47 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024.

In its latest STEO, the EIA said, "Globally, we forecast liquid fuel consumption to increase from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 100.9 million barrels per day in 2023, 400,000 more than forecast last month. bucket".

The higher consumption forecast is largely driven by an upward revision to global economic growth, the EIA added. Consumption in India is expected to increase by 200,000 bpd, and in other non-OECD countries by an average of 0.5 million bpd.

This increase in non-OECD countries offsets little consumption growth in OECD countries in 2023, the EIA continued. OECD consumption was largely unchanged as the effects of inflation continued to limit GDP and oil demand growth. We forecast global liquid fuel consumption to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2024, with non-OECD countries accounting for 1.6 mb/d of the increase.

EIA said in its latest STEO that global liquid fuel production will average about 100 million barrels per day in 2022, and forecasts an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024. Despite the upward revision to the forecast for global liquid fuel consumption, global oil inventories are still expected to continue to build over the forecast period as global oil production continues to exceed consumption.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest oil market report released in February that global oil demand will increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2023, reaching 101.9 million barrels per day. The IEA pointed out in the report that the Asia-Pacific region will dominate the economic growth outlook.

In terms of oil supply, the IEA said in its report that global production is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, driven by non-OPEC+.