IEA raises oil demand forecast again

Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand forecast for 2023 in its March oil market report. According to the IEA analysis, the upward revision of the forecast is mainly due to the increase in market demand after the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention and control policy, especially the increase in demand for aviation fuel that has driven global oil demand.

The IEA's revised forecast for global oil demand in 2023 is 102 million barrels per day, an increase of 2 million barrels per day from the previous forecast. Among them, China's demand is expected to reach 16 million barrels per day, an increase of 1 million barrels per day year-on-year. The IEA said that China's domestic flight volume is exceeding pre-epidemic levels, and the increase in aviation fuel use will drive an increase in global oil demand.

As for oil supply, global oil production was estimated at 101.55 million barrels per day in February, an increase of 830,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Oil production in the U.S. and Canada, hit by a record-breaking cold snap, is recovering. The IEA pointed out that global oil inventories are still high even as the European Union's sanctions on Russian oil have caused market turmoil. Oil supply will continue to exceed demand in the first half of 2023. But due to the recovery of the Chinese economy and the impact of seasonal factors, the IEA said it was concerned that oil supply would be lower than demand in the second half of 2023.