Global energy demand reduced by 6%, the largest decline in 70 years

A few days ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a new report saying that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is still spreading globally. Due to the impact of the "blockade" policies of various countries on the economy and society, this year's global energy demand is expected to decrease by about 6%, hitting nearly 70 years The biggest drop.

Demand "collapse" plunges the energy industry

The report believes that due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the power consumption of all countries in the world has fallen sharply. From the perspective of the total decline in energy demand, it is expected to hit the highest value in nearly 70 years. Among them, global electricity demand will be reduced by about 5%, the largest decline since the "Great Depression" period of the 20th century. The report predicts that the decline in energy demand caused by the epidemic will reach seven times the decline after the 2008 financial crisis.

The report quoted data on global energy consumption and carbon emissions over the past three months, and made an estimate of the overall demand this year. Data show that energy demand in the first quarter of this year fell by 3.8% year-on-year, and this decline has erased the increase in energy demand for the entire year of 2019.

The report points out that the reduction in energy demand caused by the epidemic is particularly evident in developed economies in Europe and America. Among them, this year's European energy demand is expected to decline by 11%, while the US energy demand may decline by about 9%.

In the report, the International Energy Agency pointed out that in absolute terms, this decline will be “unprecedented”, which is equivalent to the global energy field losing all the demand of India, the world ’s third largest energy consumer, or the loss of the United Kingdom and Germany. , France and Italy the total energy demand of the four countries.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency also pointed out in a "faster economic recovery" scenario that if the epidemic has not been fully controlled, the global energy demand decline will be reduced to 3.8% this year, but it may also trigger a rebound in the epidemic. The second wave of outbreaks will reduce energy demand by more than 6%.

Fossil energy hit hardest

The International Energy Agency Director Birol said that for the energy sector, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is a historic blow. In the current unprecedented public health and economic crisis, almost all fuel demand has been hit hard, especially in the coal, oil and natural gas fields.

In terms of crude oil, the report believes that about 60% of the global crude oil demand comes from car driving or air transportation, and the "home order" of various countries around the world triggers a sharp decline in this demand. Data show that in March this year, the global crude oil demand decreased by 10.8 million barrels per day, while the decline in crude oil demand in April this year further expanded to 29 million barrels per day, the overall decline to about 1995 levels.

However, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that with the recent success of some countries' epidemic prevention and control, and the beginning of lifting of the blockade, the annual oil demand decline will be narrowed. It is expected that global oil demand will decrease by 8.6 million per day in 2020 Barrels, a decrease of 690,000 barrels than previously expected.

The report said that this year's global coal-fired power generation is expected to fall by more than 10% year-on-year, while natural gas demand may fall by about 5%. In the past 10 years, the global natural gas sector has maintained growth, but this year due to the warm winter and epidemic, natural gas prices have hit record lows.

The report pointed out that the decline in natural gas demand is not as good as that of crude oil. The main reason is that the role of natural gas in the global transportation system is not as good as that of crude oil. The upward momentum of the year.

It is worth noting that the International Energy Agency pointed out in the report that the renewable energy industry will be the only energy segment that is likely to maintain growth. "Due to the characteristics of low cost and good flexibility, the demand for renewable energy power generation will rise. New projects will be launched in the first quarter of this year, and the amount of renewable energy power generation will increase."

Data for the first quarter of this year showed that renewable energy power generation increased by 3% year-on-year, accounting for 28% of the global power generation supply, a slight increase from 26% in 2019. In the report, the International Energy Agency predicts that for the whole year of this year, global renewable energy power generation is expected to rise by 1%, and the share of renewable energy power generation will rise by about 5%. However, the analysis believes that the epidemic still "drags" the growth of renewable energy power generation this year.

Birol pointed out that it is too early to predict the long-term impact of the epidemic, but after this crisis, the energy industry may take on a completely different look.

Suggest to increase efforts to support new energy

It is worth mentioning that the report predicts that the sudden stop in global economic activity will also lead to the largest historical decline in global carbon dioxide emissions this year. "This year's carbon emissions will not only fall unprecedentedly, but the rate of decline may reach twice the sum of all carbon emissions reductions since the end of World War II. In the next few months of this year, carbon dioxide emissions will continue to decline. Carbon emissions in 2020 The volume will reach 30.6 billion tons, a decrease of nearly 8% from 2019. "

Birol pointed out that despite the decline in global carbon emissions, this situation is not worth celebrating at the expense of economic decline and human losses.

"Reference to the 2008 financial crisis, as the future economic situation improves, we may see a substantial rebound in carbon emissions." Birol said, "But governments can still use clean energy technology as the core force of economic recovery , Including renewable energy, energy efficiency improvement, battery technology, hydrogen energy and carbon capture technology, etc., and can invest in these fields to create jobs, enhance economic competitiveness, and guide the world towards a more resilient and cleaner energy future. "

The International Energy Agency pointed out in the report that renewable energy is "the energy that can best withstand the current crisis" because no matter what the final form of economic recovery is, it will experience some form of growth.

Many foreign media analysts believe that the current decisions of government decision makers in various countries will have a huge impact on the energy industry after the epidemic and will play a greater role in the recovery. However, some analysts believe that the current means of stimulating the economy of various countries will shape the future of national energy, but policy makers should also consider that renewable energy still has certain limitations and should not be overly dependent on renewable energy.