Acrylonitrile rose significantly, and MDI continued to be strong

Top varieties this week: Acrylonitrile (East China) (+28.6%), Methylcyclosiloxane (East China) (+13.8%6), Polyethylene (Yuyao Market) (+12%), NYMEX Natural Gas ( +11.7%), Acetic Acid (East China) (+11.3%), Sulfuric Acid (Suzhou Fine Chemical 98%) (+105%), Titanium Dioxide: Titanium PTA121 Pangang Titanium Industry (+10.4%), Polypropylene (Yuyao Market) (+9.9%), Aniline (East China) (+8.6%6) WTI crude oil (+8.496);

The top drop varieties this week: maleic anhydride (Jiangsu market) (-16.4%), polymeric MDI (East China) (-12.9%), vitamin K3 (MSB96%) (market price) (-8.7%), TDI ( East China) (-5.89%) soft foam polyether (East China bulk water) (-5.1%6), pure MDI (East China) (-4.5%), heavy soda ash (East China) (-4.2%), light Soda Ash (East China) (-3.2%), rigid foam polyether (East China) (-3%) Styrene (East China) (-2.5%)

Industry News:

Polymeric MDI remains strong: The mainstream price in the domestic market is currently at RMB 26,500/ton. Although it has declined from the previous month, it still remains at a high level. In the fourth quarter, domestic and foreign installations were overhauled intensively, and the overall supply from domestic manufacturers was tight, and the tight spot market will continue. On the demand side, the downstream refrigerators, freezers, plates, automobiles and other industries have good overall demand. At present, the overall downstream inventory is not sufficient, and the terminal downstream is mainly on-demand. The domestic aggregate MDI market will remain strong.

Urea remained stable: The domestic urea market remained stable this week. The current average ex-factory price of small granular urea is 1885 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 15 CNY/ton from the previous month. On the demand side, local foreign trade is in progress. Industrial plates are purchased on demand, compound fertilizer starts at a low level, and small orders for raw materials are followed up in an appropriate amount. On the supply side, the urea operating load dropped slightly this week, with an average daily output of 153,800 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month, and the spot supply dropped slightly. Recently, the overall domestic shipment pressure is not great, and the upstream and downstream are still playing games. The bidding price in India is equivalent to the domestic ex-factory price. The domestic port flow will be followed up. It is expected that the domestic urea market price may remain stable next week. rise.

The high market price of vitamin A: The current VA domestic market price is 270 yuan/kg, and the import price is 270 yuan/kg. This week, the vitamin A market is at a high level. BASF notified the customer by email that problems with the vitamin A1000 and vitamin AD3 1000/200 production equipment caused the suspension of orders in the third quarter and the limited production capacity of vitamin A and D3 in the fourth quarter. Taking into account the continued failure of BASF's vitamin A production line in the second half of the year, the price of vitamin A is expected to remain high.

Investment Advice:

The oil and gas sector focuses on PetroChina, Sinopec and ENN, others focus on satellite petrochemicals and private refining; pesticides focus on Yangnong Chemical, Evergreen, Lier Chemical, Xianda and Limin, and coal chemicals and urea Hualu Hengsheng, Yangmei Chemical and Luxi Chemical, potash fertilizer pays attention to Guannong shares, phosphate fertilizer pays attention to Xinyangfeng, Yuntianhua, dyes pays attention to Zhejiang Longsheng, Guitu shares, organic silicon pays attention to Xin'an shares, Hesheng silicon industry, and chlor-alkali Zhongtai Chemical; Fluorochemicals pays attention to Jinshi Resources, Dongyue Group, and Juhua. Vitamin pays attention to Zhejiang Medicine, Xinhecheng, Yifan Medicine, Brother Technology. Growth stocks pay attention to IC electronic chemical manufacturers such as Jingrui, Jianghua Micro, Shanghai Xinyang, Nanda Optoelectronics, Dinglong, Jiangfeng Electronics, Yaque Technology and Qiangli New Materials, Guangxin Materials, Feikai Materials, Wanrun Leaders in the subdivision of stocks and lithium battery materials: Dangsheng Technology, Tianci Materials, Xinzhoubang, Xingyuan Material, Polyfluoride, and Shida Shenghua.

Risk Analysis:

The risk of oil prices falling rapidly and maintaining high levels; downstream demand is less than expected.