The price of the rubber industry chain has risen sharply

Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level this week. The average price of Brent's main futures contract this week was about US$42.72/barrel, down by US$0.02/barrel from last week's average price. The average price of WTI's main futures contract was about US$40.83/barrel, compared with last week. The average price rose by US$0.34/barrel. The rebound of the second overseas epidemic has led to market concerns about weak crude oil demand. Therefore, Saudi Arabia and Russia have stepped forward and will continue to maintain efficient cooperation to stabilize crude oil market prices through production cuts, but due to weak demand fundamentals , So it will limit the upside of crude oil prices.

The price of the rubber industry chain represented by natural rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber and butadiene has risen sharply this week. Since October, the domestic ex-factory price of styrene butadiene rubber/butadiene rubber has been increased 5 times, and the increase has been cumulative. The range is 1500-1800 CNY/ton. The price of the two products has increased by more than 15% this week. The supply of the two products is relatively sufficient. The raw material natural rubber, butadiene and other products have risen sharply and the tire industry The higher operating rate of the whole rubber industry chain is the main reason for the price increase. Among them, the current price of butadiene has reached 9500-9600 CNY/ton, an increase of more than 35% this week. The new capacity is less than expected, and the high operating rate of the downstream disposable glove nitrile latex and ABS industry is the significant price of butadiene The main reason for the rise. Natural rubber is affected by the expected reduction in production due to climate and epidemic factors, and the futures price has also risen sharply and exceeded 15,000 CNY/ton, which is more than 30% higher than the same period last year. The price of natural rubber has also caused a resonance in the price of the entire rubber industry chain. The recovery of the domestic automobile industry and the increase in tire export data have also directly driven the demand for upstream rubber and raw materials. In the future, the price of rubber industry chain, carbon black, tires and other products are still expected to rise.

The price of pure MDI continued to skyrocket this week. The current market price in East China has reached 33,000-35,000 CNY/ton, an increase of about 6,000 CNY/ton from last week. The price of polymeric MDI has also risen to 21,500-22,000 CNY/ton due to the impact of hurricanes and chlorine. , The supply of carbon monoxide raw materials, the U.S. Dow (340,000 tons), Covestro (330,000 tons) and Huntsman (500,000 tons) installations all have force majeure, and Japan’s Tosoh 70,000 tons installations are also in The state of shutdown, and the Kumho Mitsui 400,000-ton plant in South Korea, the 240,000-ton plant in Shanghai Huntsman, the 600,000-ton plant in Shanghai Covestro and the 250,000-ton plant in BASF South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region from late October to November will also begin to intensively For maintenance work, if Wanhua Ningbo’s 1.2 million tons and Chongqing BASF’s 400,000 tons equipment will also be overhauled from November to December, then the global MDI supply will enter a serious shortage. At the same time, the demand for downstream refrigerators, freezers, plates, and insulation Materials and other production and sales data are good. We strongly continue to believe that MDI prices will continue to rise periodically. We strongly recommend Wanhua Chemical.

Risk warning: the risk of falling prices of bulk products; the risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices; the risk of lower-than-expected downstream demand for chemical products.