Ammonium sulphate has a small rise in 2020 and will continue to rise in 2021?

Looking back on 2020, the price of ammonium sulphate can be summarized in sixteen words-the spring rises slightly, the summer falls less, and the fall and winter first rises after small.

The price adjustment is very frequent, but the cumulative rate is only about 50 CNY/ton. Only in the first half of March, the increase was nearly 100 yuan. At one time, the mainstream ex-factory price reached 500-600 CNY/ton, and the price increase only took a long time from October to November. The mainstream ex-factory price rose from 485-550 CNY/ton to 520-575 CNY/ton. In December, the price of AMMONIUM sulfate consolidated at a high level. By the end of December, the price had a small rise in Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Tangshan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu and other places. It will continue to rise in 2021?

Looking back at the trend from 2019 to 2020, it can once again help us to smooth out some factors of price increase or not. For example, we once again learned that the price increase in the peak season of Ammonium sulfate is inevitable. For example, the arrival time of this peak season will always be earlier or later than the previous year. For example, when the export shipping schedule is tight, it will bring the ammonium sulfate market to the market when the export order is just signed. The boosting effect is even greater. For example, the timing of obtaining ammonium sulfate is not very regular as considered by extrusion pellet factories, distributors and compound fertilizer companies. It is a good time to obtain goods when they can be sold. The elimination of coking grade ammonium sulphate plant only supports the price of ammonium sulphate, or it can only bring about a small increase. If the price rises significantly, it depends on export demand or domestic trade demand.

Let’s take a clear look at the momentum for the continued rise in 2021:

First of all, there is a high probability that export demand or domestic trade demand will have a good performance in 2021. In the first half of the year, the domestic trade may be more obvious. As the country attaches importance to the cultivation of crops and food security, ammonium sulfate can be used for rice. One of the nitrogen fertilizers that replace part of Urea should have better demand performance. However, the fertilizer season may be slightly delayed in the cold winter of 2020 and spring of 2021. Compound fertilizer companies, extrusion pellet factories and traders may collect and sell concentratedly. Until March, it may be after mid-March; due to the very large export volume in the last few months of 2020, the export volume from January to November 2020 will reach 7.66 million tons, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year. It is also the export of ammonium sulfate Exports may slow down in the first half of 2021, and will re-emerge in the second half of the year. In 2021, ammonium sulfate exports should increase slightly on the basis of 2020, provided that the international epidemic does not worsen and the international economy The environment is not too bad.

Secondly, the price of urea should be weak, and the price of ammonium sulfate is still slightly supported. Grassroots distributors and farmers have been very cautious about the purchase of urea. The low season of urea in 2020 will not be short, and the price will be high. It is estimated that the spring and summer of 2021 The price of urea may not be prosperous in the peak season, but will increase slightly at best. Under a high probability, the total amount of chemical fertilizers in the country will be under 9.98 million tons. The price of urea in spring is likely to fall mainly, and the supply of urea in most of 2021 will exceed the same period in 2020. Therefore, in the first half of 2020, the price of ammonium sulfate is only slightly supported. By the second half of the year, urea will fall below the cost line, and the operating rate of urea is expected to decrease. At that time, the price of urea may see a new increase, which will give ammonium sulfate a little bit more support. These speculations are still based on the premise that the prices of coal and natural gas, the upstream raw material for urea, are basically maintained at the current level and government policies remain unchanged.

Finally, considering the capacity replacement of coking units by the end of 2020, the supply in 2021 is estimated to be lower than the same period in 2020, mainly because 21 coking units in Shanxi, 39 in Henan and Hebei will exit the market before the end of the year, replacing new large The plant may not be launched until the second half of 2021, and there may be a short supply of ammonium sulfate in the first half of 2021.

In short, the demand for ammonium sulphate may increase slightly. Whether domestic or foreign demand for ammonium sulphate has been stable or increasing, the supply is likely to increase slightly. The probability of ammonium sulphate in 2021 will continue to be slightly better than in 2020: prices are easy to rise and difficult However, in the global economic downturn, prices are not expected to rise much.