Domestic oil prices may welcome 'four consecutive rises'

At 24:00 on December 31, a new round of domestic oil price adjustment window was opened, and it may face an upward adjustment at that time. The "four consecutive rises" become a high probability event.

Since December, international oil prices have maintained a volatile upward trend. In the mid-to-early period, countries began to launch new crown vaccines, which continued to ferment market optimism. At the same time, OPEC+ reached a follow-up agreement on production cuts. Oil prices rebounded to their highest point since March this year, boosted by multiple good news. However, afterwards, the International Energy Agency and OPEC lowered their forecasts for global oil demand, which suppressed the optimism of the market.

Affected by this, the domestically estimated rate of change of crude oil has weakly moved down in the positive range, but the probability of this round of refined oil retail price increases is relatively high. Zhuo Chuang estimates that at the close of December 29, the domestic reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day was 3.02%, corresponding to an increase of 90 CNY/ton for gasoline and diesel, and the increase of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel were 0.07 and 0.08 yuan/liter respectively . The increase rate monitored by Longzhong Information is 100 CNY/ton.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Zou Xuelian said that due to the fact that international oil prices have risen and fallen less, the domestic retail prices of refined oil products will realize a "four consecutive rise" on the 31st. The news side showed favorable guidance, especially in the first half of the year. The news side dominated the market trend. The domestic gasoline and diesel market rose strongly. However, in the middle and late ten days, the supply and demand side became market-oriented again. The prices of Shandong and Shaanxi refineries fell after rising. Regional arbitrage rebounded after falling.