Recently, Bank of Communications International released a report that the proportion of CR5 for photovoltaic silicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules will increase rapidly from 69.3%, 72.8%, 37.9%, and 42.8% in 2019 to 87.5%, 88.1%, and 53.2% in 2020. , 55.1%. The bank predicts that the market concentration of silicon materials and wafers is already high, and the room for further improvement is limited, while the market concentration of solar cells and modules is still low, and the market share of leading companies will have a large room for improvement. Chain profits are expected to gradually shift downstream. In 2020, the newly installed capacity of overseas photovoltaics is about 80 GW, which is only a slight decrease compared to about 85 GW in 2019. The bank predicts that countries where demand is suppressed due to health incidents in 2020 will return to normal levels in 2021, while the first few major markets will continue to grow, and new overseas photovoltaic installations will increase to about 100 GW this year.
At present, many companies are looking for the development (opportunities) of the silicone industry chain. What is the future of the silicone market? It is understood that in the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, downstream procurement is cautious, and the price of silicone continues to fall, and the lowest is close to history. The bottom is 14,000 yuan/ton. Since the third quarter, the price of organic silicon has rebounded, especially in November. On November 30, the average price of silicone DMC market quotations exceeded 33,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of over 63.40%. Among them, Shandong Luxi Chemical's quotation reached 34,500 yuan/ton. After a lapse of two years, silicone has returned to 30,000 yuan/ton.
The global silicone rubber market is driven by the development of construction and automobiles
Silicone products have good electrical insulation properties. Their dielectric loss, voltage resistance, arc resistance, corona resistance, volume resistivity and surface resistivity are among the best in insulating materials, and their electrical properties are affected by temperature and frequency. The impact is very small. Therefore, they are a kind of stable electrical insulating materials, which are widely used in the electronics and electrical industries. In addition to excellent heat resistance, silicone also has excellent water repellency, which is a guarantee for high reliability of electrical equipment used in wet conditions.
Biologically active silicone is an essential nutrient for the human body. Silicone is an important element that constitutes human tissue and participates in metabolism. It is stored in every cell of the human body, serving as a support for cell construction and helping other important substances such as magnesium, phosphorus, calcium, etc. to be absorbed. The human body can only continuously obtain silicone through food.
In the past ten years, the global production capacity of organic silicon has been shifting to China's domestic market. China has become a major producer and consumer of organic silicon. The advantages of domestic organic silicon products have become more prominent and the effect of import substitution has been remarkable. As of the end of 2018, there were 13 monomer production companies in China (including Shanxi Sanjia and Jiangsu Hongbo), and their total production capacity converted to siloxane production capacity increased by approximately 40kt compared with 2017. In 2018, 11 monomer companies in China (excluding Shanxi Sanjia and Jiangsu Hongbo) produced approximately 1270kt of siloxane, an increase of 100kt over 2017.
It is estimated that in 2021, the global organic silicon market product demand will be approximately 3.046 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 5.6%. Among them, the global silicone rubber market is driven by the development of the construction and automobile industries, and the demand is about 1.818 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.0%; the global silicone oil market due to the needs of cosmetics, medicine and other industries, the demand is about 1.111 million Tons, the average annual growth rate is about 3.2%; the global silicone resin market demand is about 116,000 tons, the average annual growth rate is about 3.2%, mainly used in the construction industry.
In terms of silicone consumption, with the steady increase in silicone output, the consumption gap of polysiloxanes in China has gradually narrowed. With the massive export of China's electronics, electrical appliances, and textile products and the steady development of domestic construction, automobiles, electric power, medical and other industries, the demand for China's organic silicon products has maintained a rapid growth. With the steady implementation of national strategies such as the “Belt and Road” initiative, the growth rate of polysiloxane consumption in China will remain stable. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of polysiloxane in China in 2022 will be about 1.44 million tons.
The consumption level of silicone is closely related to the level of economic development. The United States is the world's largest consumer of silicone products, accounting for about 35% of the global silicone product market, followed by Europe with about 33% and Japan accounting for about 15%. Due to the difference in industrial structure, there are certain differences in the organic silicon consumption structure of various countries in the world. In the United States, silicone oil is mainly used in cosmetics, papermaking, and industrial defoamers; the market for silicone rubber is mainly in the fields of construction, automobiles, and electronics/electrical appliances. Japanese silicone oil is mainly used in cosmetics, coatings and textiles; silicone rubber is mainly used in construction, electronics/electrical appliances and automobiles.
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