Ethylene Glycol Prices Stabilize After Falling, Market Expected to Bottom Out and Recover

October 24th, news from China

October Ethylene Glycol Prices Shift Lower, Signs of Stabilization This Week in China

This week, the price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose, showing signs of stabilizing. According to the data, as of October 24, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 4,276.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.47% from the average price of 4,385 CNY/ton on October 1.

Port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) in China saw a generally strong basis, with a significant increase in the basis transactions within the week. As of October 24, the actual basis transaction range for this week's contracts was +95 to +107, an increase of 20-35 from last week.

The spot price of coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol in China (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) for a full truckload is 3830-4030 CNY/ton.

Regarding overseas ethylene glycol, as of October 24, recent vessel cargoes were negotiated and finalized around $488–$491 per ton.

The main reasons for the recent stabilization of ethylene glycol prices in China:

1. Major factory in East China to switch production in November

Supply-side variables have emerged, with market rumors suggesting that a major factory in East China plans to halt production and switch to another product in November. As the market gradually absorbs the supply from Yulong Petrochemical, the expected supply pressure in China has somewhat eased.

2. Inventory data declines

On October 23, 2025, the total inventory of monoethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the total inventory of 513,000 tons on October 20, 2025. The weekly arrival volume of goods has decreased, breaking the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation.

3. International crude oil prices have risen significantly

On October 23, 2025, international crude oil futures experienced a significant surge. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of December-delivery light crude oil futures rose by $3.29, closing at $61.79 per barrel—a 5.62% increase. Meanwhile, December-delivery Brent crude oil futures on the London market climbed by $3.40, settling at $65.99 per barrel, marking a 5.43% gain. These substantial increases in raw material prices have begun to shape investors' expectations for the ethylene glycol market.

October ethylene glycol prices in China are likely to weaken first and then strengthen.

Ethylene glycol port inventories remain relatively low, with current spot supply pressure not significant. The recent price decline is mainly due to strong supply expectations in China, a large amount of overseas imports arriving, and weak stockpiling intentions from downstream end-users. Inventory data has strengthened, and the market is trading in advance on the expectation of a weaker fundamentals. With prices having fallen significantly and showing signs of stabilization recently, the market is watching for bullish support. Ethylene glycol may bottom out and recover in the short term, with a high probability that October prices will first weaken and then strengthen.